Valerenga vs Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Valerenga at 47%, yet in-form Rosenborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Valerenga vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 26 as Valerenga welcome Rosenborg to Intility Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Valerenga have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga's home record at Intility Arena: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Valerenga are significantly better at Intility Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rosenborg — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Valerenga have won 1, Rosenborg 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Valerenga in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 69% and Rosenborg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 54% | Rosenborg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.73 xG and Rosenborg 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.108 / defence 0.861 | Rosenborg attack 1.115 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.776 / away 1.250. Data: 52 Valerenga games / 52 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 47% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 24%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Rosenborg 4.17. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rosenborg (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 90% | Rosenborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 47% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Valerenga 1.73 / Rosenborg 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.108 / def 0.861 | Rosenborg attack 1.115 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.776 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Rosenborg xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Rosenborg kick off?
Valerenga vs Rosenborg kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Intility Arena.
Where is Valerenga vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Rosenborg part of?
Valerenga vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 47% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Valerenga and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Rosenborg?
Record (3 meetings): Valerenga 1W | Draws 2 | Rosenborg 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Rosenborg in?
Valerenga (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Valerenga's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.52
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.92
1.20
Rosenborg xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
4%
23.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.20 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Valerenga come into this having played 52 games, going 22W 20D 10L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.73 PPG from 52 outings (26W 12D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valerenga on 1.65 PPG, Rosenborg on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Valerenga's home form reads 14W 11D 1L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.31 points per game from 26 outings (9W 7D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.83 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 22W 20D 10L in their last 52 games (1.65 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 26W 12D 14L in their last 52 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Rosenborg away?
Valerenga's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.04 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Rosenborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Rosenborg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valerenga
2
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 3, Rosenborg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Rosenborg 0-2 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Valerenga at 77%, Rosenborg at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Valerenga) and 62% (Rosenborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Valerenga's games and 58% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Valerenga's matches and 62% of Rosenborg's.
Do Valerenga and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valerenga's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga and Rosenborg finished level at 0-0 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.73 xG and Rosenborg 1.20 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valerenga fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.11 / defence 0.86 against Rosenborg attack 1.11 / defence 0.88, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 47% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 24%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 54%, Rosenborg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Rosenborg's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.65 PPG, Rosenborg 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.