Valerenga 1-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valerenga vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Intility Arena plays host to Valerenga versus Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valerenga have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 games at Intility Arena this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Haugesund arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Valerenga 3W, Haugesund 2W, 2D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Valerenga — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Haugesund — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valerenga 56% versus Haugesund 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 67% | Haugesund 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.29 xG and Haugesund 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.810 / defence 1.390 | Haugesund attack 0.655 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.362. Data: 46 Valerenga games / 47 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 38% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 36%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Haugesund 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valerenga are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Haugesund (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valerenga if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Valerenga 60% | Haugesund 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 38% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Valerenga 1.29 / Haugesund 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.810 / def 1.390 | Haugesund attack 0.655 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Haugesund xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Haugesund kick off?
Valerenga vs Haugesund kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Valerenga 1 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Valerenga vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Haugesund part of?
Valerenga vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 38% chance of winning, Haugesund a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Valerenga and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Haugesund?
Record (7 meetings): Valerenga 3W | Draws 2 | Haugesund 2W.
What form are Valerenga and Haugesund in?
Valerenga (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Valerenga's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.66x) against Valerenga's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
38%
2.65
27%
3.73
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.53
1.24
Haugesund xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
10%
10.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.24 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valerenga come into this having played 46 games, going 17W 7D 22L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.22 PPG from 46 outings (15W 11D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Valerenga against 1.22 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Valerenga's home form reads 10W 2D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.87 points per game from 23 outings (5W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valerenga are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.24 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 17W 7D 22L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 15W 11D 20L in their last 46 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Haugesund away?
Valerenga's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 1.39 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Valerenga go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 3-0 on 20 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valerenga have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Valerenga
3
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 5, Haugesund have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Haugesund?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 44%, Haugesund 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Valerenga and 52% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valerenga keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Valerenga have failed to score in 26% of games; Haugesund in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Valerenga's recent matches and 44% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valerenga vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Valerenga's matches and 52% of Haugesund's.
Do Valerenga and Haugesund tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valerenga and Haugesund share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Valerenga and Haugesund drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.29 xG and Haugesund 1.24 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.81 / defence 1.39 against Haugesund attack 0.66 / defence 0.92, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 38% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 36%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 67%, Haugesund 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.26 PPG, Haugesund 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.