Valerenga 1-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valerenga vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Ham-Kam travel to Intility Arena to take on Valerenga. The game is scheduled for Monday 16 May 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Valerenga have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Valerenga at Intility Arena this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.76 xG and Ham-Kam 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.969 / defence 0.833 | Ham-Kam attack 0.895 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.195. Ham-Kam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Valerenga's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Valerenga games / 5 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 58% | Draw 23% | Ham-Kam 19%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Ham-Kam 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Valerenga (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Monday 16 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 58% | Draw 23% | Ham-Kam 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Valerenga 1.76 / Ham-Kam 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.969 / def 0.833 | Ham-Kam attack 0.895 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Ham-Kam xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Valerenga vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 16 May 2022 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Valerenga 1 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Valerenga vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Ham-Kam part of?
Valerenga vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 58% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Valerenga and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Ham-Kam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valerenga and Ham-Kam in?
Valerenga (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Valerenga home split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Valerenga's attack rating (0.97) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.29
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.65
0.89
Ham-Kam xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
3%
30.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.1 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Valerenga and 0.89 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Pre-Season
Ham-Kam
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Ham-Kam runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ham-Kam have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2023, when Valerenga won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Valerenga
3
Draws
3
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Ham-Kam?
From 8 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 2, Ham-Kam have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Valerenga 0-3 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Valerenga and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 6, as Valerenga and Ham-Kam drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.76 xG and Ham-Kam 0.89 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.97 / defence 0.83 against Ham-Kam attack 0.90 / defence 1.22, drawn from 36/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 58% | Draw 23% | Ham-Kam 19%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.