Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tromso at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF make the trip to Alfheim Stadion to face Tromso in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tromso have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tromso have posted 3W 3D 4L at Alfheim Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Tromso, 1.80 for Sarpsborg 08 FF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 56% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 52% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.48 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.767 / defence 0.994 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.029 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.208. Tromso's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.48 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Tromso games / 55 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 40% | Draw 30% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 29%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tromso are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tromso if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 50% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 40% | Draw 30% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Tromso 1.48 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.767 / def 0.994 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.029 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Tromso (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Alfheim Stadion.
Where is Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 40% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Tromso (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Tromso's attack at 0.77x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (1.03x) against Tromso's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
40%
2.48
30%
3.30
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.71
1.24
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
7%
14.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Tromso and 1.24 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Tromso come into this having played 25 games, going 7W 8D 10L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sarpsborg 08 FF sit at 1.28 PPG from 25 outings (9W 5D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Tromso against 1.28 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Tromso's home form reads 3W 4D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Sarpsborg 08 FF have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (4W 0D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tromso are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.20 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 7W 8D 10L in their last 25 games (1.16 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 9W 5D 11L in their last 25 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Tromso's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.08 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 on 26 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Tromso
1
Draws
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Tromso have won 5, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 58%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Tromso) and 67% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: Tromso keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Tromso's games and 58% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Tromso's recent games and 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Tromso's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF finished level at 0-0 at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.48 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.24 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tromso fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.77 / defence 0.99 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.03 / defence 1.07, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 40% | Draw 30% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 29%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 52%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tromso 1.16 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.