Tromso vs Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tromso vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tromso host Sandefjord at Alfheim Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sandefjord have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.40 xG and Sandefjord 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Sandefjord attack 0.967 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.797 / away 1.349. Data: 0 Tromso games / 30 Sandefjord games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Tromso 34% | Draw 27% | Sandefjord 39%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Sandefjord 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 34% | Draw 27% | Sandefjord 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Tromso 1.40 / Sandefjord 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Sandefjord attack 0.967 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.797 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Sandefjord xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Sandefjord kick off?
Tromso vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 25 April 2021 at Alfheim Stadion.
Where is Tromso vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Sandefjord part of?
Tromso vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 34% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Tromso and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Sandefjord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tromso and Sandefjord in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Sandefjord away split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tromso's attack rating (0.85) and Sandefjord's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Tromso's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
34%
2.94
27%
3.66
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.90
1.50
Sandefjord xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
8%
13.16
10%
10.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Tromso and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Tromso and 1.50 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Pre-Season
Sandefjord
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Tromso won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tromso's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Tromso
3
Draws
2
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Tromso have won 5, Sandefjord have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Tromso 3-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Sandefjord?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Tromso's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 5, as Tromso and Sandefjord drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.40 xG and Sandefjord 1.50 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tromso fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Sandefjord landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Sandefjord attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 34% | Draw 27% | Sandefjord 39%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.