Tromso 1-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tromso at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tromso vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 1 as Tromso welcome Haugesund to Romssa Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 March 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Tromso have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tromso have posted 3W 4D 3L at Romssa Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Romssa Arena.
Haugesund — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Tromso at 0.90 PPG versus Haugesund's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Tromso, 4 for Haugesund and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Haugesund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Tromso trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Haugesund trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 48% versus Haugesund 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 57% | Haugesund 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.81 xG and Haugesund 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 1.017 / defence 0.985 | Haugesund attack 0.971 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.223. Data: 30 Tromso games / 30 Haugesund games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Tromso 52% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 25%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Haugesund 4.00. Tromso hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tromso are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tromso offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Tromso 40% | Haugesund 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Mar 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 52% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Tromso 1.81 / Haugesund 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 1.017 / def 0.985 | Haugesund attack 0.971 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Tromso (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Haugesund xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Haugesund kick off?
Tromso vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Haugesund?
Tromso 1 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Tromso vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Haugesund part of?
Tromso vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 52% chance of winning, Haugesund a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Tromso and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Haugesund?
Record (8 meetings): Tromso 3W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 4W.
What form are Tromso and Haugesund in?
Tromso (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Tromso's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Tromso's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.34
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.98
1.17
Haugesund xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
4%
25.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Tromso and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Tromso and 1.17 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tromso come into this having played 60 games, going 28W 10D 22L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.12 PPG from 60 outings (18W 13D 29L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Tromso carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Tromso's home form reads 14W 6D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.83 points per game from 30 outings (5W 10D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tromso are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.03 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 28W 10D 22L in their last 60 games (1.57 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Haugesund away?
Tromso's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.60 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Tromso or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Haugesund in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2021, when Haugesund won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tromso's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Tromso
1
Draws
4
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Tromso have won 5, Haugesund have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Haugesund?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 53%, Haugesund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Tromso) and 50% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tromso have failed to score in 27% of games; Haugesund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Tromso's recent matches and 50% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tromso vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Tromso's matches and 50% of Haugesund's.
Do Tromso and Haugesund tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out Haugesund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Haugesund 1-0 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.81 xG and Haugesund 1.17 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tromso fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against Haugesund attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 52% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 25%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 57%, Haugesund 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Tromso (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.