Stromsgodset vs Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 25 as Stromsgodset welcome Viking to Marienlyst Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stromsgodset stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stromsgodset have posted 7W 2D 1L at Marienlyst Stadion — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Viking have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stromsgodset 1.60 PPG, Viking 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Stromsgodset, 0 for Viking and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stromsgodset in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Viking in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stromsgodset 59% and Viking 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stromsgodset 65% | Viking 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 2.31 xG and Viking 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.226 / defence 0.846 | Viking attack 1.196 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.303. Data: 51 Stromsgodset games / 51 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 58% | Draw 23% | Viking 19%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Viking 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Stromsgodset (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.63 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 70% | Viking 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 58% | Draw 23% | Viking 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG Stromsgodset 2.31 / Viking 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.226 / def 0.846 | Viking attack 1.196 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Viking xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Viking kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Viking kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Viking part of?
Stromsgodset vs Viking is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 58% chance of winning, Viking a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Stromsgodset and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Viking?
Record (1 meetings): Stromsgodset 0W | Draws 1 | Viking 0W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Viking in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Viking (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.41
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.63
1.32
Viking xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
10%
10.08
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
2%
52.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.32 for Viking, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 15W 15D 21L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking's form line: 22W 13D 16L from 51 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.18 PPG, Viking on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.52 PPG from 25 outings (10W 8D 7L).
On the road, Viking have gone 8W 7D 10L from 25 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.86 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 71%.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Viking in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 15W 15D 21L in their last 51 games (1.18 PPG), while Viking have gone 22W 13D 16L in their last 51 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Viking away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.52 PPG; Viking away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Viking have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Aug 2024, when Viking won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Viking specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
5
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 2, Viking have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 64%, Viking 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Stromsgodset and 80% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Viking in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Stromsgodset's games and 64% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Stromsgodset's matches and 80% of Viking's.
Do Stromsgodset and Viking tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Viking in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stromsgodset's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset and Viking finished level at 0-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 2.31 xG and Viking 1.32 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Viking landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.23 / defence 0.85 against Viking attack 1.20 / defence 1.05, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 58% | Draw 23% | Viking 19%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 65%, Viking 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Viking's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.18 PPG, Viking 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.