Stromsgodset 1-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stromsgodset at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sandefjord make the trip to Marienlyst Stadion to face Stromsgodset in Eliteserien (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Monday 8 July 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Stromsgodset (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Stromsgodset at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sandefjord's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Sandefjord's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Stromsgodset's favour (1.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Stromsgodset, 3 for Sandefjord and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Stromsgodset 0–2 Sandefjord — a Sandefjord win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stromsgodset — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sandefjord — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 43% versus Sandefjord 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 38% | Sandefjord 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.55 xG and Sandefjord 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.922 / defence 0.817 | Sandefjord attack 0.943 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.473. Sandefjord's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stromsgodset's projected output up. Data: built from Stromsgodset's last 42 games and Sandefjord's last 43.
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 47% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 28%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.13 | Draw 3.97 | Sandefjord 3.60. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stromsgodset's last 10 home games and Sandefjord's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stromsgodset 40% (last 10 home games) | Sandefjord 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 13 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 8 July 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 47% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Stromsgodset 1.55 / Sandefjord 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.922 / def 0.817 | Sandefjord attack 0.943 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sandefjord xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord FAQs
What time does Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 8 July 2024 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Stromsgodset 1 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord part of?
Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 13) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 47% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stromsgodset and Sandefjord will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 0.92x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (0.94x) against Stromsgodset's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Stromsgodset's last 42 games and Sandefjord's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
47%
2.13
25%
3.97
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.69
1.14
Sandefjord xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
6%
17.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.14 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stromsgodset come into this having played 42 games, going 18W 6D 18L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 0.95 PPG from 42 outings (10W 10D 22L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Stromsgodset carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Stromsgodset's home form reads 10W 3D 7L across their last 20 home games, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.50 points per game from their last 20 away games (2W 4D 14L). That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.52 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord in 62%.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
Stromsgodset (Home) vs Sandefjord (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stromsgodset
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord Form FAQs
What form are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 18W 6D 18L in their last 42 games (1.43 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 10W 10D 22L in their last 42 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Sandefjord away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.65 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord, the earliest from June 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 22 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Sandefjord have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won Stromsgodset 0-5 Sandefjord on 23 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Stromsgodset have won 2, Sandefjord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Sandefjord last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 November 2025: Stromsgodset 2-6 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 45%, Sandefjord 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stromsgodset) and 70% (Sandefjord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sandefjord in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stromsgodset and Sandefjord matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Stromsgodset's games and 65% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Stromsgodset's matches and 70% of Sandefjord's.
Do Stromsgodset and Sandefjord matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 60% of Sandefjord's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset and Sandefjord share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset and Sandefjord finished level at 1-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.55 xG and Sandefjord 1.14 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.92 / defence 0.82 against Sandefjord attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 47% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 28%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 38%, Sandefjord 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stromsgodset arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.