Stromsgodset 3-3 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stromsgodset host Rosenborg at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 September 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stromsgodset stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset at Marienlyst Stadion this season: 3W 2D 3L from 8 home games — 1.38 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 3L across 7 road games this term (1.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.43 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rosenborg are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 62% versus Rosenborg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 62% | Rosenborg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.03 xG and Rosenborg 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.878 / defence 1.409 | Rosenborg attack 0.792 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.443. Data: 16 Stromsgodset games / 16 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 24% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 51%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Rosenborg 1.96. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Stromsgodset 62% | Rosenborg 29%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 24% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Stromsgodset 1.03 / Rosenborg 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.878 / def 1.409 | Rosenborg attack 0.792 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Rosenborg xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 13 September 2020 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Stromsgodset 3 - 3 Rosenborg.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg part of?
Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 24% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Stromsgodset and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stromsgodset and Rosenborg in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (0.88) and Rosenborg's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
24%
4.12
25%
4.02
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.64
1.61
Rosenborg xG
4.12
24%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
5%
20.61
18%
5.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.61 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stromsgodset come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 4D 7L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.75 PPG from 16 outings (8W 4D 4L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stromsgodset's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.81 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rosenborg in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 8W 4D 4L in their last 16 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Rosenborg away?
Rosenborg's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.14 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Rosenborg won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 4, Rosenborg have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Rosenborg 6-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Rosenborg see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 71%, Rosenborg 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Stromsgodset) and 43% (Rosenborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 43%; Stromsgodset have failed to score in 29% of games; Rosenborg in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 29% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Stromsgodset's matches and 43% of Rosenborg's.
Do Stromsgodset and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset and Rosenborg share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 17, as Stromsgodset and Rosenborg drew 3-3 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.03 xG and Rosenborg 1.61 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rosenborg outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.88 / defence 1.41 against Rosenborg attack 0.79 / defence 0.85, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 24% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 51%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 62%, Rosenborg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.