Stromsgodset 6-0 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Molde travel to Marienlyst Stadion to take on Stromsgodset. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's home record at Marienlyst Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Molde stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Molde's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Stromsgodset's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stromsgodset, 1 for Molde and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2021, ended 0–3 with Molde winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Stromsgodset trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Molde trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 57% versus Molde 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stromsgodset 61% | Molde 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.51 xG and Molde 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.085 / defence 0.822 | Molde attack 1.224 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.785 / away 1.233. Molde's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Molde have an above-average attack strength of 1.224 — the away xG of 1.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Stromsgodset games / 54 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 41% | Draw 31% | Molde 28%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Molde 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Molde (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 60% | Molde 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 41% | Draw 31% | Molde 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Stromsgodset 1.51 / Molde 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.085 / def 0.822 | Molde attack 1.224 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.785 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Molde xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Molde kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Molde kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Stromsgodset 6 - 0 Molde.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Molde part of?
Stromsgodset vs Molde is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 41% chance of winning, Molde a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Stromsgodset and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Molde?
Record (1 meetings): Stromsgodset 0W | Draws 0 | Molde 1W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Molde in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Molde (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 1.08x the league average against Molde's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
41%
2.45
31%
3.24
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.75
1.24
Molde xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
6%
16.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.24 for Molde, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stromsgodset's recent record stands at 15W 16D 23L from 54 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 34W 7D 13L across 54 games — 2.02 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Molde by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stromsgodset heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stromsgodset have managed 10W 9D 8L from 27 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Molde's away record stands at 13W 5D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.48 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Molde in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 15W 16D 23L in their last 54 games (1.13 PPG), while Molde have gone 34W 7D 13L in their last 54 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.44 PPG; Molde away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Molde in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stromsgodset and Molde runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2021, when Stromsgodset won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Molde specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
6
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 3, Molde have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 3-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stromsgodset at 63%, Molde at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Stromsgodset and 78% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Stromsgodset's games and 70% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Stromsgodset's matches and 78% of Molde's.
Do Stromsgodset and Molde tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Molde in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stromsgodset run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Molde.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Molde 6-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.51 xG and Molde 1.24 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Molde landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.08 / defence 0.82 against Molde attack 1.22 / defence 0.78, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 41% | Draw 31% | Molde 28%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 61%, Molde 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Molde's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Stromsgodset winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.