Stabaek 2-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stabaek vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 17 as Stabaek welcome Haugesund to Nadderud Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 September 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Stabaek — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek at Nadderud Stadion this season: 2W 3D 3L from 8 home games — 1.12 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund away from home this season: 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stabaek at 1.10 PPG versus Haugesund's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Stabaek's 25% rate and Haugesund's 29% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Stabaek have won 0, Haugesund 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2020, ended 1–3 with Haugesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stabaek in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 56% versus Haugesund 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 56% | Haugesund 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 0.91 xG and Haugesund 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.656 / defence 1.051 | Haugesund attack 0.626 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.442. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.656 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Stabaek games / 16 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 33% | Draw 32% | Haugesund 35%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Haugesund 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 25% | Haugesund 29% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 33% | Draw 32% | Haugesund 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Stabaek 0.91 / Haugesund 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.656 / def 1.051 | Haugesund attack 0.626 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Haugesund xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Haugesund kick off?
Stabaek vs Haugesund kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 12 September 2020 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Stabaek 2 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Stabaek vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Haugesund part of?
Stabaek vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 33% chance of winning, Haugesund a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Stabaek and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Haugesund?
Record (1 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 1W.
What form are Stabaek and Haugesund in?
Stabaek (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
33%
3.06
32%
3.10
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Stabaek xG
Total xG
1.85
0.95
Haugesund xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 14.9 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Stabaek and 0.95 for Haugesund, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 4W 7D 5L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund's form line: 6W 3D 7L from 16 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stabaek on 1.19 PPG, Haugesund on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.14 PPG from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Stabaek are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.06 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 4W 7D 5L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Haugesund away?
Stabaek's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.14 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Haugesund in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stabaek and Haugesund runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 December 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Stabaek won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stabaek's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stabaek
1
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Haugesund?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 3, Haugesund have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2023, when Haugesund 3-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Haugesund?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stabaek see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Stabaek 29% BTTS, Haugesund 29%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Stabaek and 29% for Haugesund.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 43%; Stabaek have failed to score in 43% of games; Haugesund in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Stabaek's recent matches and 29% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Stabaek's recent games and 29% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Stabaek defy the odds to beat Haugesund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Haugesund 2-1 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 0.91 xG and Haugesund 0.95 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Stabaek beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.66 / defence 1.05 against Haugesund attack 0.63 / defence 1.01, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 33% | Draw 32% | Haugesund 35%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Stabaek win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 56%, Haugesund 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stabaek 1.19 PPG, Haugesund 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stabaek win broke the near-deadlock. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.