Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 27 as Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome ODD Ballklubb to Sarpsborg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Sarpsborg 08 FF carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 0 for ODD Ballklubb and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% versus ODD Ballklubb 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% | ODD Ballklubb 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.95 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.080 / defence 0.909 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.847 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.235. Data: 56 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 56 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 58% | Draw 26% | ODD Ballklubb 16%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | ODD Ballklubb 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | ODD Ballklubb 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 58% | Draw 26% | ODD Ballklubb 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.95 / ODD Ballklubb 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.080 / def 0.909 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.847 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.95
ODD Ballklubb xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 58% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (3 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 2 | ODD Ballklubb 0W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 1.08x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
58%
1.71
26%
3.85
16%
6.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.90
0.95
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
6.43
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
2%
45.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.95 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 18W 13D 25L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 20W 12D 24L from 56 games, 1.29 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.20 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.54 PPG from 28 outings (12W 7D 9L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 8W 6D 14L from 28 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.61 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 18W 13D 25L in their last 56 games (1.20 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.54 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
5
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 11 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%, ODD Ballklubb 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 54% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 29% of games; ODD Ballklubb in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 46% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 54% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 27, as Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.95 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.95 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.08 / defence 0.91 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.85 / defence 1.03, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 58% | Draw 26% | ODD Ballklubb 16%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 52%, ODD Ballklubb 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.20 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.