Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-0 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 3 as Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome ODD Ballklubb to Sarpsborg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Sarpsborg Stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Sarpsborg 08 FF) versus 2.10 (ODD Ballklubb). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sarpsborg 08 FF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, ODD Ballklubb in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1 for ODD Ballklubb and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 65% and ODD Ballklubb 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 62% | ODD Ballklubb 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.24 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.877 / defence 1.139 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.904 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.031. Data: 32 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 32 ODD Ballklubb games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Draw 28% | ODD Ballklubb 32%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | ODD Ballklubb 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.6 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | ODD Ballklubb 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Draw 28% | ODD Ballklubb 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.24 / ODD Ballklubb 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.877 / def 1.139 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.904 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.06
ODD Ballklubb xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 0 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 40% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (6 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W | Draws 3 | ODD Ballklubb 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.88x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.54
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.30
1.06
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
9%
10.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.06 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 23W 11D 26L record — W-D-D-D-W across the most recent five.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 21W 15D 24L from 60 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.33 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (12W 8D 10L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 8W 10D 12L from 30 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.45 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; ODD Ballklubb in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 23W 11D 26L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 21W 15D 24L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.47 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
5
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 11 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%, ODD Ballklubb 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 50% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sarpsborg 08 FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 3, as Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.24 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.06 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.90 / defence 0.84, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Draw 28% | ODD Ballklubb 32%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 62%, ODD Ballklubb 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.33 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.