Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 2 July 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Sarpsborg 08 FF have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Brann have collected 1.75 PPG across 4 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 1D 1L. Last five: W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Brann have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Brann are the stronger side — 1.75 PPG clear of the hosts (1.75 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Sarpsborg 08 FF — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Brann — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% and Brann 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Brann 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.23 xG and Brann 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.793 / defence 1.314 | Brann attack 0.901 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.550. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 4 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 26% | Draw 23% | Brann 52%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | Brann 1.92. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Brann 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Jul 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 26% | Draw 23% | Brann 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.23 / Brann 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.793 / def 1.314 | Brann attack 0.901 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.550 • Poisson stance: Brann (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Brann xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 2 July 2020 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 1 Brann.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 26% chance of winning, Brann a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-L-L. Brann (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.79x the league average against Brann's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.90x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
26%
3.91
23%
4.37
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.06
1.83
Brann xG
3.91
26%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
4%
24.51
15%
6.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.83 for Brann, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 4L record — L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Brann's form line: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Brann, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 1.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 2.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Early Season
Brann
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 games (0.00 PPG), while Brann have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 1-4 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
4
Draws
3
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, Brann have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Brann 1-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Brann see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%, Brann 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 100% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 75% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 100% of Brann's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Brann in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.23 xG and Brann 1.83 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Brann landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.79 / defence 1.31 against Brann attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 26% | Draw 23% | Brann 52%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%, Brann 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Brann managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.