Sandefjord 2-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 28 as Sandefjord welcome Viking to Sandefjord Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 December 2020 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord at Sandefjord Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Viking have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Viking's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Sandefjord's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Viking in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 46% versus Viking 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 54% | Viking 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.16 xG and Viking 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.650 / defence 1.241 | Viking attack 0.928 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.326. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.650 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Sandefjord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Sandefjord games / 27 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 28% | Draw 27% | Viking 45%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Viking 2.22. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Sandefjord 30% | Viking 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2020, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 28% | Draw 27% | Viking 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Sandefjord 1.16 / Viking 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.650 / def 1.241 | Viking attack 0.928 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Viking (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Viking xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Viking kick off?
Sandefjord vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 December 2020 at Sandefjord Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Viking?
Sandefjord 2 - 2 Viking.
Where is Sandefjord vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Viking part of?
Sandefjord vs Viking is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 28% chance of winning, Viking a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sandefjord and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Viking?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Viking in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Viking (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandefjord's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
28%
3.60
27%
3.65
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.69
1.53
Viking xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
6%
16.58
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.4 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.53 for Viking, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 26 games, going 9W 4D 13L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.62 PPG from 26 outings (12W 6D 8L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 3W 4D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.50 points per game from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.85 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Viking in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 9W 4D 13L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while Viking have gone 12W 6D 8L in their last 26 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.08 PPG; Viking away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Viking in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Viking have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 May 2024, when Viking won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Viking specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
1
Draws
8
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Viking have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Viking 2-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 33%, Viking 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sandefjord) and 67% (Viking). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Viking?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 58% of Viking's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sandefjord's matches and 67% of Viking's.
Do Sandefjord and Viking tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Viking in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord and Viking share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 28, as Sandefjord and Viking drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.16 xG and Viking 1.53 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sandefjord beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.65 / defence 1.24 against Viking attack 0.93 / defence 1.31, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 28% | Draw 27% | Viking 45%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 54%, Viking 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Viking's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.