Sandefjord 0-2 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sandefjord Arena plays host to Sandefjord versus Kristiansund BK in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 30 August 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sandefjord's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 3L across 7 games at Sandefjord Arena this term (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game.
Kristiansund BK have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 2L across 8 road games this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Sandefjord half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Kristiansund BK half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 60% and Kristiansund BK 87% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 67% | Kristiansund BK 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 0.98 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.687 / defence 1.057 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.847 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.391. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Sandefjord games / 15 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 29% | Draw 29% | Kristiansund BK 42%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Kristiansund BK 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kristiansund BK are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Sandefjord 43% | Kristiansund BK 88% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 29% | Draw 29% | Kristiansund BK 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Sandefjord 0.98 / Kristiansund BK 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.687 / def 1.057 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.847 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Kristiansund BK xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 30 August 2020 at Sandefjord Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK?
Sandefjord 0 - 2 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 29% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.69x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kristiansund BK's attack (0.85x) against Sandefjord's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
29%
3.45
29%
3.50
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.22
1.25
Kristiansund BK xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
8%
12.01
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.5 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.25 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sandefjord's recent record stands at 5W 1D 9L from 15 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 3L across 15 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kristiansund BK by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sandefjord heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sandefjord have managed 3W 1D 3L from 7 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 2W 3D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sandefjord are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 2.07 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Kristiansund BK in 87%.
Last 15 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 5W 1D 9L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 6W 6D 3L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.43 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 6-0 on 20 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sandefjord
1
Draws
4
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 5, Kristiansund BK have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sandefjord 2-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 43% for Sandefjord, 100% for Kristiansund BK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Sandefjord and 86% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Sandefjord's games and 100% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Sandefjord's matches and 86% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kristiansund BK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Sandefjord 0-2 at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 0.98 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.25 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.69 / defence 1.06 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 29% | Draw 29% | Kristiansund BK 42%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 67%, Kristiansund BK 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 87% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Kristiansund BK arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.