Sandefjord 2-2 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haugesund at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandefjord vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Haugesund make the trip to Release Arena to face Sandefjord in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sandefjord have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sandefjord's home record at Release Arena: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Haugesund (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Haugesund are 1.30 PPG clear of Sandefjord in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.50 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sandefjord lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 3–1 with Sandefjord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 61% and Haugesund 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 73% | Haugesund 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.21 xG and Haugesund 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.813 / defence 1.358 | Haugesund attack 0.807 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.466. Data: 59 Sandefjord games / 59 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 29% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 47%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Haugesund 2.13. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Sandefjord dominate the H2H record, yet Haugesund are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haugesund at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haugesund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 90% | Haugesund 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 29% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Sandefjord 1.21 / Haugesund 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.813 / def 1.358 | Haugesund attack 0.807 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Haugesund xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Haugesund kick off?
Sandefjord vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Sandefjord 2 - 2 Haugesund.
Where is Sandefjord vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Haugesund part of?
Sandefjord vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 29% chance of winning, Haugesund a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sandefjord and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
Record (3 meetings): Sandefjord 2W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are Sandefjord and Haugesund in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (0.81) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.81x) against Sandefjord's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
29%
3.47
25%
4.06
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.82
1.61
Haugesund xG
3.47
29%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
6%
17.32
14%
7.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.61 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sandefjord come into this having played 59 games, going 16W 11D 32L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.22 PPG from 59 outings (19W 15D 25L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.22 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sandefjord's home form reads 7W 10D 12L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.79 points per game from 29 outings (5W 8D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
Attack vs Defence
Sandefjord are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.46 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 16W 11D 32L in their last 59 games (1.00 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 19W 15D 25L in their last 59 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Haugesund away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.07 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 4-0 on 22 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sandefjord
3
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 5, Haugesund have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 69%, Haugesund 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Sandefjord and 52% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Sandefjord's games and 55% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Sandefjord's matches and 52% of Haugesund's.
Do Sandefjord and Haugesund tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord and Haugesund share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Release Arena, Regular Season - 30, as Sandefjord and Haugesund drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.21 xG and Haugesund 1.61 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.81 / defence 1.36 against Haugesund attack 0.81 / defence 0.83, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 29% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 47%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 73%, Haugesund 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.00 PPG, Haugesund 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.