Sandefjord 0-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Haugesund make the trip to Release Arena to face Sandefjord in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 August 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sandefjord have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's home record at Release Arena: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Release Arena than their overall form suggests.
Haugesund (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.00 for Haugesund. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sandefjord lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2023, ended 2–3 with Haugesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 63% and Haugesund 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 78% | Haugesund 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.89 xG and Haugesund 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.215 / defence 1.076 | Haugesund attack 0.677 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.326. Data: 48 Sandefjord games / 49 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 59% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 19%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Haugesund 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sandefjord (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 60% | Haugesund 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 59% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Sandefjord 1.89 / Haugesund 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.215 / def 1.076 | Haugesund attack 0.677 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Haugesund xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Haugesund kick off?
Sandefjord vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Sandefjord 0 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Sandefjord vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Haugesund part of?
Sandefjord vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 59% chance of winning, Haugesund a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sandefjord and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
Record (5 meetings): Sandefjord 2W | Draws 2 | Haugesund 1W.
What form are Sandefjord and Haugesund in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Haugesund (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (1.22) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.68x) against Sandefjord's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
59%
1.69
22%
4.53
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.86
0.97
Haugesund xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
3%
35.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Sandefjord and 0.97 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sandefjord come into this having played 49 games, going 10W 11D 28L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.16 PPG from 49 outings (15W 12D 22L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.16 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sandefjord's home form reads 5W 9D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.88 points per game from 24 outings (5W 6D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Sandefjord are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.22 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Haugesund in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 10W 11D 28L in their last 49 games (0.84 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 15W 12D 22L in their last 49 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Haugesund away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.00 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 4-0 on 22 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sandefjord
3
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 5, Haugesund have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 79%, Haugesund 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Sandefjord and 50% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Sandefjord's games and 46% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Sandefjord's matches and 50% of Haugesund's.
Do Sandefjord and Haugesund tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord and Haugesund finished level at 0-0 at Release Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.89 xG and Haugesund 0.97 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.22 / defence 1.08 against Haugesund attack 0.68 / defence 0.91, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 59% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 19%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 78%, Haugesund 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Haugesund's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 0.84 PPG, Haugesund 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.