Sandefjord 2-2 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 13 as Sandefjord welcome Ham-Kam to Jotun Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 July 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Jotun Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jotun Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ham-Kam — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.70 (Ham-Kam). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Ham-Kam, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for Sandefjord.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 1–3 with Ham-Kam winning.
It is worth noting that Ham-Kam have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Ham-Kam in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 52% versus Ham-Kam 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 58% | Ham-Kam 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.50 xG and Ham-Kam 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.769 / defence 0.824 | Ham-Kam attack 0.983 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.186. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Sandefjord games / 40 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 49% | Draw 27% | Ham-Kam 24%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Ham-Kam 4.17. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 10% | Ham-Kam 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 49% | Draw 27% | Ham-Kam 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Sandefjord 1.50 / Ham-Kam 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.769 / def 0.824 | Ham-Kam attack 0.983 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.747 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Ham-Kam xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 12 July 2026 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Sandefjord 2 - 2 Ham-Kam.
Where is Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam part of?
Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 49% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sandefjord and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Ham-Kam?
Record (8 meetings): Sandefjord 1W | Draws 1 | Ham-Kam 6W.
What form are Sandefjord and Ham-Kam in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandefjord's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
49%
2.04
27%
3.66
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.46
0.96
Ham-Kam xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
5%
18.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sandefjord and 0.96 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Sandefjord have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 19W 5D 16L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam's form line: 15W 9D 16L from 40 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.55 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sandefjord have posted 2.05 PPG from 19 outings (12W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 3W 6D 10L from 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ham-Kam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.48 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam in 60%.
Defensively: Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 19W 5D 16L in their last 40 games (1.55 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Ham-Kam away?
Sandefjord's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 2.05 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Ham-Kam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ham-Kam in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2022, when Ham-Kam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
2
Draws
6
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Ham-Kam have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sandefjord 2-2 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 32%, Ham-Kam 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sandefjord) and 58% (Ham-Kam).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Ham-Kam in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 53% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sandefjord's recent games and 58% of Ham-Kam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Sandefjord and Ham-Kam drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.50 xG and Ham-Kam 0.96 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ham-Kam outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.77 / defence 0.82 against Ham-Kam attack 0.98 / defence 1.11, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 49% | Draw 27% | Ham-Kam 24%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 58%, Ham-Kam 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.55 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.