Sandefjord 0-0 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Fredrikstad travel to Jotun Arena to take on Sandefjord. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 October 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sandefjord have posted 7W 0D 3L at Jotun Arena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Jotun Arena than their overall form suggests.
Fredrikstad — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.40 (Fredrikstad). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Fredrikstad have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Sandefjord.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2025, ended 1–3 with Fredrikstad winning.
It is worth noting that Fredrikstad have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Fredrikstad trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 61% versus Fredrikstad 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 68% | Fredrikstad 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.35 xG and Fredrikstad 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.023 / defence 0.900 | Fredrikstad attack 0.911 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.730 / away 1.400. Fredrikstad's defence strength of 0.760 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Sandefjord games / 55 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 41% | Draw 28% | Fredrikstad 31%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Fredrikstad 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 50% | Fredrikstad 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 41% | Draw 28% | Fredrikstad 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Sandefjord 1.35 / Fredrikstad 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.023 / def 0.900 | Fredrikstad attack 0.911 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.730 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Fredrikstad xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Sandefjord 0 - 0 Fredrikstad.
Where is Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad part of?
Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 41% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sandefjord and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Fredrikstad?
Record (3 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 0 | Fredrikstad 3W.
What form are Sandefjord and Fredrikstad in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 1.02x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fredrikstad's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.57
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.49
1.15
Fredrikstad xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
13%
7.74
8%
12.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.15 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord's recent record stands at 21W 8D 25L from 54 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fredrikstad, meanwhile, have gone 23W 17D 14L across 54 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.31 PPG, Fredrikstad on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sandefjord have managed 16W 2D 9L from 27 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fredrikstad's away record stands at 10W 7D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.33 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fredrikstad in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Fredrikstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 21W 8D 25L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 23W 17D 14L in their last 54 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Fredrikstad away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.85 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Fredrikstad runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sandefjord's record when hosting Fredrikstad specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Sandefjord
2
Draws
4
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Fredrikstad?
From 6 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 0, Fredrikstad have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Fredrikstad 1-0 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Fredrikstad?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 52%, Fredrikstad 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Sandefjord) and 41% (Fredrikstad). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad in 37%; Fredrikstad in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 41% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sandefjord's matches and 41% of Fredrikstad's.
Do Sandefjord and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord and Fredrikstad finished level at 0-0 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.35 xG and Fredrikstad 1.15 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Fredrikstad landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.02 / defence 0.90 against Fredrikstad attack 0.91 / defence 0.76, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 41% | Draw 28% | Fredrikstad 31%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 68%, Fredrikstad 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.31 PPG, Fredrikstad 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.