Sandefjord 0-1 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sandefjord face Fredrikstad.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Fredrikstad travel to Jotun Arena to take on Sandefjord in Eliteserien (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sandefjord stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Sandefjord have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fredrikstad — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Fredrikstad away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.70 (Fredrikstad). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Sandefjord, 1 for Fredrikstad and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2024, ended Sandefjord 0–1 Fredrikstad — a Fredrikstad win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Fredrikstad trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 66% versus Fredrikstad 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 66% | Fredrikstad 41%). Note also that Fredrikstad surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Sandefjord recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.70 xG and Fredrikstad 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.003 / defence 1.006 | Fredrikstad attack 0.861 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.256. Data: built from Sandefjord's last 59 games and Fredrikstad's last 29.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 52% | Draw 24% | Fredrikstad 24%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.94 | Draw 4.16 | Fredrikstad 4.11. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sandefjord's last 10 home games and Fredrikstad's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sandefjord 70% (last 10 home games) | Fredrikstad 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 30 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 52% | Draw 24% | Fredrikstad 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Sandefjord 1.70 / Fredrikstad 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.003 / def 1.006 | Fredrikstad attack 0.861 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Fredrikstad xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad FAQs
What time does Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Sandefjord 0 - 1 Fredrikstad.
Where is Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad part of?
Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 30) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 52% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sandefjord and Fredrikstad will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 1.00x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fredrikstad's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sandefjord's last 59 games and Fredrikstad's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
52%
1.94
24%
4.16
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.79
1.09
Fredrikstad xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
4%
22.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.09 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord's recent record stands at 9W 7D 13L from 29 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Fredrikstad, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 7L across 29 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fredrikstad by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sandefjord heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sandefjord have managed 7W 2D 5L from their last 14 home games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fredrikstad's away record stands at 6W 3D 5L across their last 14 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.31 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fredrikstad in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Fredrikstad
Current Season
Sandefjord (Home) vs Fredrikstad (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sandefjord
Current Season
Fredrikstad
Current Season
❓ Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad Form FAQs
What form are Sandefjord and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 9W 7D 13L in their last 29 games (1.17 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 13W 9D 7L in their last 29 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Fredrikstad away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.64 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2024. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sandefjord's record when hosting Fredrikstad specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Sandefjord
2
Draws
4
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Fredrikstad?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sandefjord have won 0, Fredrikstad have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Fredrikstad last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Fredrikstad 1-0 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Fredrikstad?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 64%, Fredrikstad 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Sandefjord) and 43% (Fredrikstad). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sandefjord and Fredrikstad matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 43% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sandefjord and Fredrikstad matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Sandefjord's matches and 43% of Fredrikstad's.
Do Sandefjord and Fredrikstad matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 64% of Fredrikstad's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fredrikstad defy the odds to beat Sandefjord 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Sandefjord 0-1 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.70 xG and Fredrikstad 1.09 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sandefjord fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.00 / defence 1.01 against Fredrikstad attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 52% | Draw 24% | Fredrikstad 24%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Fredrikstad win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 66%, Fredrikstad 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.