Rosenborg 0-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF make the trip to Lerkendal Stadion to face Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 June 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Rosenborg against 2.20 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rosenborg lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 2–3 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 70% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 77% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.23 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.892 / defence 0.926 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.974 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.758 / away 1.273. Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Rosenborg games / 40 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 37% | Draw 31% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Rosenborg 70% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jun 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 37% | Draw 31% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Rosenborg 1.23 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.892 / def 0.926 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.974 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.758 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 June 2023 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Rosenborg 0 - 3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 37% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (3 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (0.89) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.97x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
37%
2.72
31%
3.26
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.38
1.15
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.15 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 29W 17D 14L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 23W 11D 26L from 60 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.33 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.20 PPG from 30 outings (20W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 11W 3D 16L from 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.60 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 29W 17D 14L in their last 60 games (1.73 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 23W 11D 26L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.20 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 on 25 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
3
Draws
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Rosenborg 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Rosenborg, 70% for Sarpsborg 08 FF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Rosenborg and 70% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rosenborg's games and 70% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Rosenborg's matches and 70% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sarpsborg 08 FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Rosenborg 0-3 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.23 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.15 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.97 / defence 0.79, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 37% | Draw 31% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Sarpsborg 08 FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 77%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.73 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.