Rosenborg 5-0 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host ODD Ballklubb at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rosenborg at 1.70 PPG versus ODD Ballklubb's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Rosenborg, 1 for ODD Ballklubb and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rosenborg trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 58% versus ODD Ballklubb 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 64% | ODD Ballklubb 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.91 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.974 / defence 0.934 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.890 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.788 / away 1.240. Data: 45 Rosenborg games / 45 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 55% | Draw 28% | ODD Ballklubb 17%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | ODD Ballklubb 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 50% | ODD Ballklubb 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 55% | Draw 28% | ODD Ballklubb 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Rosenborg 1.91 / ODD Ballklubb 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.974 / def 0.934 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.890 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.788 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.03
ODD Ballklubb xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Rosenborg 5 - 0 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 55% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (3 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 1 | ODD Ballklubb 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rosenborg's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
55%
1.81
28%
3.63
17%
5.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.94
1.03
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
5.79
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
3%
39.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.4 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.03 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 22W 11D 12L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 19W 8D 18L from 45 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rosenborg on 1.71 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.09 PPG from 22 outings (14W 4D 4L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 7W 4D 11L from 22 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rosenborg are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.69 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 22W 11D 12L in their last 45 games (1.71 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 19W 8D 18L in their last 45 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.09 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Rosenborg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Rosenborg
2
Draws
1
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 7, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 59%, ODD Ballklubb 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Rosenborg and 59% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Rosenborg's matches and 59% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 5-0 hammering of ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat ODD Ballklubb 5-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.91 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.03 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.97 / defence 0.93 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 55% | Draw 28% | ODD Ballklubb 17%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 64%, ODD Ballklubb 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.71 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.