Rosenborg 1-0 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Mjondalen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host Mjondalen at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 10 December 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Mjondalen — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Mjondalen have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Rosenborg have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Rosenborg have won 1, Mjondalen 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2020, ended 2–0 with Rosenborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games).
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 56% versus Mjondalen 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 67% | Mjondalen 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.93 xG and Mjondalen 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.151 / defence 1.149 | Mjondalen attack 0.547 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.371. Mjondalen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Rosenborg games / 28 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 61% | Draw 24% | Mjondalen 15%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Mjondalen 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Mjondalen 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Dec 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 61% | Draw 24% | Mjondalen 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Rosenborg 1.93 / Mjondalen 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.151 / def 1.149 | Mjondalen attack 0.547 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Mjondalen xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Mjondalen kick off?
Rosenborg vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 10 December 2020 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Mjondalen?
Rosenborg 1 - 0 Mjondalen.
Where is Rosenborg vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Mjondalen part of?
Rosenborg vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 61% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rosenborg and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Mjondalen?
Record (1 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are Rosenborg and Mjondalen in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Mjondalen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.15) and Mjondalen's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
61%
1.64
24%
4.15
15%
6.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.79
0.86
Mjondalen xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
6.77
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
2%
46.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.86 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Mjondalen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 13W 6D 8L from 27 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 18L across 27 games — 0.85 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjondalen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 8W 3D 2L from 13 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mjondalen's away record stands at 2W 2D 9L across 13 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 0.85 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 13W 6D 8L in their last 27 games (1.67 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 7W 2D 18L in their last 27 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Mjondalen away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.08 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Mjondalen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Mjondalen specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Rosenborg
0
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 4, Mjondalen have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2021, when Rosenborg 3-1 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Mjondalen?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 69%, Mjondalen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Rosenborg and 46% for Mjondalen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Mjondalen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Rosenborg's games and 54% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Rosenborg's matches and 46% of Mjondalen's.
Do Rosenborg and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Mjondalen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Mjondalen 1-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.93 xG and Mjondalen 0.86 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rosenborg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Mjondalen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.15 / defence 1.15 against Mjondalen attack 0.55 / defence 1.24, drawn from 27/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 61% | Draw 24% | Mjondalen 15%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 67%, Mjondalen 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjondalen's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.