Rosenborg 4-0 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rosenborg and Lillestrom meet at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 21 August 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's home record at Lerkendal Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.00 for Lillestrom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, Lillestrom have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Rosenborg's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with Lillestrom winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lillestrom have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Lillestrom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 65% and Lillestrom 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 67% | Lillestrom 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.72 xG and Lillestrom 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.057 / defence 0.909 | Lillestrom attack 0.970 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.352. Data: 48 Rosenborg games / 48 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 50% | Draw 24% | Lillestrom 27%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Lillestrom 3.70. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Lillestrom 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Aug 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 50% | Draw 24% | Lillestrom 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Rosenborg 1.72 / Lillestrom 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.057 / def 0.909 | Lillestrom attack 0.970 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Lillestrom xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Lillestrom kick off?
Rosenborg vs Lillestrom kicked off at 18:15 on Wednesday 21 August 2024 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Rosenborg 4 - 0 Lillestrom.
Where is Rosenborg vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Lillestrom part of?
Rosenborg vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 50% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rosenborg and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Lillestrom?
Record (6 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 5W.
What form are Rosenborg and Lillestrom in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Lillestrom (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.97x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
50%
2.01
24%
4.20
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.91
1.19
Lillestrom xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
5%
20.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.19 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 18W 9D 21L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom's form line: 19W 6D 23L from 48 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.31 for Lillestrom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 1.79 PPG from 24 outings (13W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 8W 3D 13L from 24 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.52 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Lillestrom in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 18W 9D 21L in their last 48 games (1.31 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 19W 6D 23L in their last 48 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Lillestrom away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.79 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Rosenborg
1
Draws
5
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Lillestrom?
From 9 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 3, Lillestrom have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 62%, Lillestrom 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Rosenborg) and 58% (Lillestrom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Rosenborg's games and 54% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Rosenborg's matches and 58% of Lillestrom's.
Do Rosenborg and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Lillestrom 4-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.72 xG and Lillestrom 1.19 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lillestrom landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.06 / defence 0.91 against Lillestrom attack 0.97 / defence 1.13, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 50% | Draw 24% | Lillestrom 27%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 67%, Lillestrom 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Lillestrom's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.31 PPG, Lillestrom 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.