Rosenborg 2-3 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to Lerkendal Stadion to face Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Thursday 25 June 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.29 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.714 / defence 0.958 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.159 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.423. Rosenborg's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bodo/Glimt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Rosenborg games / 2 Bodo/Glimt games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 31% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 44%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Bodo/Glimt 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Jun 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 31% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Rosenborg 1.29 / Bodo/Glimt 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.714 / def 0.958 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.159 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Bodo/Glimt xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 25 June 2020 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Rosenborg 2 - 3 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 31% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (0.71) and Bodo/Glimt's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.16x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
31%
3.20
25%
4.06
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.88
1.58
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.20
31%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
6%
15.54
12%
8.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.58 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Pre-Season
Bodo/Glimt
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 4-0 on 24 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
5
Draws
3
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 2, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out Rosenborg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Rosenborg 2-3 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.29 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.58 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 1.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.71 / defence 0.96 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.16 / defence 1.20, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 31% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 44%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.