ODD Ballklubb 0-1 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stromsgodset make the trip to Skagerak Arena to face ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 August 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
ODD Ballklubb (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's home record at Skagerak Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stromsgodset have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Stromsgodset have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for ODD Ballklubb, 1.50 for Stromsgodset — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — ODD Ballklubb have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Stromsgodset in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 3 meetings, Stromsgodset have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to ODD Ballklubb's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2021, ended 0–3 with Stromsgodset winning.
It is worth noting that Stromsgodset have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
ODD Ballklubb half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Stromsgodset half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 56% versus Stromsgodset 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ODD Ballklubb 65% | Stromsgodset 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 2.38 xG and Stromsgodset 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.190 / defence 1.138 | Stromsgodset attack 0.752 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.247. Data: 46 ODD Ballklubb games / 46 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 64% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 13%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Stromsgodset 7.69. The model has a clear lean to ODD Ballklubb (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.38 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ODD Ballklubb at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 80% | Stromsgodset 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 64% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 62% | xG ODD Ballklubb 2.38 / Stromsgodset 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.190 / def 1.138 | Stromsgodset attack 0.752 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Stromsgodset xG
62%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
ODD Ballklubb 0 - 1 Stromsgodset.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 64% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 13% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset?
Record (3 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 0W | Draws 0 | Stromsgodset 3W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.19x the league average against Stromsgodset's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 2.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (0.75x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
64%
1.55
22%
4.50
13%
7.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.44
1.07
Stromsgodset xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
7.43
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
9%
10.75
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
1%
79.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.07 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 19W 8D 19L from 46 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 19L across 46 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.15 for Stromsgodset. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 12W 4D 6L from 22 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — ODD Ballklubb are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 4W 5D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.41 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 19W 8D 19L in their last 46 games (1.41 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 13W 14D 19L in their last 46 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Stromsgodset away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.82 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won 5-1 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
3
Draws
5
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Stromsgodset have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 2-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 68%, Stromsgodset 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for ODD Ballklubb and 64% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 59% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 64% of Stromsgodset's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stromsgodset defy the odds to beat ODD Ballklubb 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat ODD Ballklubb 0-1 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 2.38 xG and Stromsgodset 1.07 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. ODD Ballklubb fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.19 / defence 1.14 against Stromsgodset attack 0.75 / defence 1.10, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 64% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 13%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Stromsgodset win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 65%, Stromsgodset 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.41 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.