ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stromsgodset make the trip to Skagerak Arena to face ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
ODD Ballklubb (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's home record at Skagerak Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stromsgodset have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Stromsgodset have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for ODD Ballklubb, 1.20 for Stromsgodset — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — ODD Ballklubb have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Stromsgodset in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — ODD Ballklubb lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2020, ended 1–3 with Stromsgodset winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
ODD Ballklubb half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Stromsgodset half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 58% and Stromsgodset 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 60% | Stromsgodset 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 2.47 xG and Stromsgodset 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.083 / defence 0.937 | Stromsgodset attack 0.832 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.152. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing ODD Ballklubb's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 ODD Ballklubb games / 40 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 71% | Draw 19% | Stromsgodset 11%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.41 | Draw 5.26 | Stromsgodset 9.09. The model has a clear lean to ODD Ballklubb (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ODD Ballklubb at 71% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 60% | Stromsgodset 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 71% | Draw 19% | Stromsgodset 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 55% | xG ODD Ballklubb 2.47 / Stromsgodset 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.083 / def 0.937 | Stromsgodset attack 0.832 / def 1.391 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Stromsgodset xG
55%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 10 July 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 71% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset?
Record (2 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 0W | Draws 0 | Stromsgodset 2W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.08x the league average against Stromsgodset's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 2.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (0.83x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
71%
1.41
19%
5.36
11%
9.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.37
0.90
Stromsgodset xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.36
19%
Draw
9.44
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
8%
11.86
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
1%
111.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 0.90 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 17W 8D 15L from 40 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 10W 13D 17L across 40 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.08 for Stromsgodset. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 10W 4D 5L from 19 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 4W 4D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.38 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 17W 8D 15L in their last 40 games (1.48 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 10W 13D 17L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Stromsgodset away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.79 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won 5-1 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
3
Draws
5
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Stromsgodset have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 2-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 63%, Stromsgodset 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for ODD Ballklubb and 68% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Stromsgodset in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 58% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 68% of Stromsgodset's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at ODD Ballklubb's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset finished level at 0-0 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 2.47 xG and Stromsgodset 0.90 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Stromsgodset landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against Stromsgodset attack 0.83 / defence 1.39, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 71% | Draw 19% | Stromsgodset 11%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 60%, Stromsgodset 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.48 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.