ODD Ballklubb 2-3 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord meet at Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 28 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb at Skagerak Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sandefjord (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: ODD Ballklubb 0W, Sandefjord 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 55% versus Sandefjord 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 62% | Sandefjord 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 2.10 xG and Sandefjord 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.106 / defence 0.998 | Sandefjord attack 0.932 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.143. Data: 43 ODD Ballklubb games / 42 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 59% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 16%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Sandefjord 6.25. The model has a clear lean to ODD Ballklubb (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Sandefjord 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 59% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG ODD Ballklubb 2.10 / Sandefjord 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.106 / def 0.998 | Sandefjord attack 0.932 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Sandefjord xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 28 July 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
ODD Ballklubb 2 - 3 Sandefjord.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 59% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord?
Record (2 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 0W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 1W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (1.11) and Sandefjord's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (0.93x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
59%
1.70
25%
3.98
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.16
1.06
Sandefjord xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
12%
8.14
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
2%
50.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.06 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 42 games, going 18W 8D 16L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.21 PPG from 42 outings (14W 9D 19L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.21 for Sandefjord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 11W 4D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — ODD Ballklubb are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.16 points per game from 19 outings (7W 1D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.10 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 18W 8D 16L in their last 42 games (1.48 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 14W 9D 19L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Sandefjord away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.95 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.16 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 4-1 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
3
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Sandefjord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 10 November 2024, when Sandefjord 1-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 63%, Sandefjord 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for ODD Ballklubb and 53% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sandefjord in 32%; Sandefjord in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 47% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 53% of Sandefjord's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sandefjord defy the odds to beat ODD Ballklubb 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat ODD Ballklubb 2-3 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 2.10 xG and Sandefjord 1.06 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sandefjord outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.11 / defence 1.00 against Sandefjord attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 59% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 16%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Sandefjord win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 62%, Sandefjord 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (42 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (42 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.48 PPG, Sandefjord 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.