ODD Ballklubb 2-2 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as ODD Ballklubb face Sandefjord.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord meet at Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 3). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
ODD Ballklubb's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
ODD Ballklubb at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sandefjord (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sandefjord away from home: 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from ODD Ballklubb's last 10 home games and Sandefjord's last 10 away games) — ODD Ballklubb have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sandefjord in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Sandefjord edge it 4 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended ODD Ballklubb 3–2 Sandefjord — a ODD Ballklubb win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 55% versus Sandefjord 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 55% | Sandefjord 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.64 xG and Sandefjord 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.031 / defence 1.055 | Sandefjord attack 0.907 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.347. Data: built from ODD Ballklubb's last 32 games and Sandefjord's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 46% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 30%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.19 | Draw 4.13 | Sandefjord 3.32. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (ODD Ballklubb's last 10 home games and Sandefjord's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: ODD Ballklubb 60% (last 10 home games) | Sandefjord 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (ODD Ballklubb 32 games, Sandefjord 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 3 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 46% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.64 / Sandefjord 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.031 / def 1.055 | Sandefjord attack 0.907 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Sandefjord xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord FAQs
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
ODD Ballklubb 2 - 2 Sandefjord.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 3) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 46% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (1.03) and Sandefjord's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (0.91x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from ODD Ballklubb's last 32 games and Sandefjord's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
46%
2.19
24%
4.13
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.93
1.29
Sandefjord xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
6%
17.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.3 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.29 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 14D 23L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 0.92 PPG from 60 outings (14W 13D 33L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
ODD Ballklubb carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 15W 5D 10L across their last 30 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 30 away games (6W 2D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.50 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb (Home) vs Sandefjord (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord Form FAQs
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 23W 14D 23L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 14W 13D 33L in their last 60 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Sandefjord away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.67 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2020 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 10 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won Sandefjord 4-1 ODD Ballklubb on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
3
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Sandefjord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 November 2024: Sandefjord 1-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 57%, Sandefjord 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for ODD Ballklubb and 77% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 53% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 77% of Sandefjord's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 80% of Sandefjord's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 3, as ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.64 xG and Sandefjord 1.29 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.03 / defence 1.05 against Sandefjord attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 32/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 46% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 30%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 55%, Sandefjord 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.