ODD Ballklubb 1-2 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Molde (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as ODD Ballklubb face Molde.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ODD Ballklubb host Molde at Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 June 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
ODD Ballklubb's home record at Skagerak Arena: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Molde have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Molde away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Molde — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Molde have the better historical record — 5 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for ODD Ballklubb.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Molde winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Molde have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Molde in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 62% and Molde 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ODD Ballklubb 65% | Molde 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 0.92 xG and Molde 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.877 / defence 1.168 | Molde attack 1.072 / defence 0.710. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.449. Molde's defence strength of 0.710 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 ODD Ballklubb games / 40 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 19% | Draw 23% | Molde 58%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Molde 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Molde (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 90% | Molde 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jun 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 19% | Draw 23% | Molde 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG ODD Ballklubb 0.92 / Molde 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.877 / def 1.168 | Molde attack 1.072 / def 0.710 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Molde (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Molde xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Molde kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Molde kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 June 2022 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 2 Molde.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Molde part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Molde is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 19% chance of winning, Molde a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Molde?
Record (5 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 0W | Draws 0 | Molde 5W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Molde in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Molde (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (0.88) and Molde's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
19%
5.33
23%
4.39
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.73
1.81
Molde xG
5.33
19%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
16%
6.13
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
3%
32.72
23%
4.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.8 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.81 for Molde, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 21W 13D 26L from 60 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 38W 8D 14L across 60 games — 2.03 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Molde by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ODD Ballklubb heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 13W 6D 11L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Molde's away record stands at 15W 5D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.45 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ODD Ballklubb have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Molde in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Molde in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 21W 13D 26L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while Molde have gone 38W 8D 14L in their last 60 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.50 PPG; Molde away: 1.67 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Molde in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2021, when Molde won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Molde specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
0
Draws
8
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Molde have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-4 Molde.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 73%, Molde at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for ODD Ballklubb and 77% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 67% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 77% of Molde's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Molde tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Molde in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out ODD Ballklubb 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat ODD Ballklubb 1-2 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 0.92 xG and Molde 1.81 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.88 / defence 1.17 against Molde attack 1.07 / defence 0.71, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 19% | Draw 23% | Molde 58%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 65%, Molde 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.