ODD Ballklubb 2-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 41%, yet in-form ODD Ballklubb provide a compelling counter-argument — this ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Skagerak Arena plays host to ODD Ballklubb versus Kristiansund BK in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 16 August 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 4W 1D 2L at Skagerak Arena — 1.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kristiansund BK (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 2W 4D 1L from 7 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. ODD Ballklubb's 2.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Kristiansund BK's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kristiansund BK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 38% and Kristiansund BK 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ODD Ballklubb 54% | Kristiansund BK 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.29 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.943 / defence 1.185 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.909 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.340. Data: 13 ODD Ballklubb games / 13 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 34% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 41%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Kristiansund BK 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kristiansund BK as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form ODD Ballklubb (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 57% | Kristiansund BK 86% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 34% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.29 / Kristiansund BK 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.943 / def 1.185 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.909 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Kristiansund BK xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 16 August 2020 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
ODD Ballklubb 2 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 34% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
ODD Ballklubb's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Kristiansund BK's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Kristiansund BK's attack (0.91x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
34%
2.96
26%
3.92
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.73
1.44
Kristiansund BK xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
8%
12.50
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.44 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 13 games, going 8W 1D 4L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kristiansund BK sit at 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (5W 6D 2L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.92 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.62 for Kristiansund BK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Kristiansund BK have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (2W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 2.00 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 85%.
Defensively: ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 8W 1D 4L in their last 13 games (1.92 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 5W 6D 2L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Kristiansund BK away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.86 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.43 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
ODD Ballklubb
4
Draws
3
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK?
From 8 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, Kristiansund BK have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Kristiansund BK 0-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Kristiansund BK see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 57% for ODD Ballklubb, 86% for Kristiansund BK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for ODD Ballklubb and 71% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 86% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 71% of Kristiansund BK's.
Shock result as ODD Ballklubb defy the odds to beat Kristiansund BK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Kristiansund BK 2-1 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.29 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.44 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.94 / defence 1.19 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 34% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 41%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual ODD Ballklubb win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 54%, Kristiansund BK 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.92 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.