ODD Ballklubb 2-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Ham-Kam travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb at Skagerak Arena this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ham-Kam — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 0 for Ham-Kam and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2022, ended 2–1 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ham-Kam in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 50% and Ham-Kam 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 59% | Ham-Kam 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.40 xG and Ham-Kam 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.857 / defence 1.093 | Ham-Kam attack 0.886 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.755 / away 1.379. Data: 52 ODD Ballklubb games / 22 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 39% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 36%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Ham-Kam 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, ODD Ballklubb are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Ham-Kam 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 39% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.40 / Ham-Kam 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.857 / def 1.093 | Ham-Kam attack 0.886 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.755 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Ham-Kam xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam?
ODD Ballklubb 2 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 39% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam?
Record (1 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 0 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (0.86) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
39%
2.58
26%
3.91
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.74
1.34
Ham-Kam xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
10%
9.81
9%
11.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.34 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 9W 3D 10L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam's form line: 4W 11D 7L from 22 games, 1.05 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.36 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (4W 0D 6L).
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.18 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam in 73%.
Last 22 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 9W 3D 10L in their last 22 games (1.36 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 4W 11D 7L in their last 22 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Ham-Kam away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.20 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ham-Kam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
0
Draws
2
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam?
From 6 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Ham-Kam have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2024, when Ham-Kam 1-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 70%, Ham-Kam at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for ODD Ballklubb and 60% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 100% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 60% of Ham-Kam's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Ham-Kam 2-0 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.40 xG and Ham-Kam 1.34 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ham-Kam landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.86 / defence 1.09 against Ham-Kam attack 0.89 / defence 0.93, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 39% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 36%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 59%, Ham-Kam 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.36 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.