ODD Ballklubb 2-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 54% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ham-Kam travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, ODD Ballklubb stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
ODD Ballklubb at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Ham-Kam — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: ODD Ballklubb 1.20 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of ODD Ballklubb: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Ham-Kam, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Jun 2023, ended ODD Ballklubb 1–0 Ham-Kam — a ODD Ballklubb win.
The head-to-head data gives ODD Ballklubb an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Ham-Kam in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 53% versus Ham-Kam 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 53% | Ham-Kam 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.98 xG and Ham-Kam 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.866 / defence 0.932 | Ham-Kam attack 1.005 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.849 / away 1.357. Ham-Kam's defence rating of 1.237 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing ODD Ballklubb's projected output up. Data: built from ODD Ballklubb's last 55 games and Ham-Kam's last 55.
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 54% | Draw 22% | Ham-Kam 24%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.86 | Draw 4.60 | Ham-Kam 4.11. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.98 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, ODD Ballklubb are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (ODD Ballklubb 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (ODD Ballklubb's last 10 home games and Ham-Kam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: ODD Ballklubb 50% (last 10 home games) | Ham-Kam 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 26 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 54% | Draw 22% | Ham-Kam 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.98 / Ham-Kam 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.866 / def 0.932 | Ham-Kam attack 1.005 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.849 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Ham-Kam xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam FAQs
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam?
ODD Ballklubb 2 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 26) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 54% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (0.87) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from ODD Ballklubb's last 55 games and Ham-Kam's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
54%
1.86
22%
4.60
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.25
1.27
Ham-Kam xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
3%
29.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.27 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 21W 13D 21L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Ham-Kam's form line: 14W 16D 25L from 55 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.38 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.63 PPG from their last 27 home games (13W 5D 9L).
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 5W 7D 15L from their last 27 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.22 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam in 60%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
ODD Ballklubb (Home) vs Ham-Kam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam Form FAQs
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 21W 13D 21L in their last 55 games (1.38 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 14W 16D 25L in their last 55 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Ham-Kam away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.63 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 18 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ham-Kam have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
0
Draws
2
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Ham-Kam have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 August 2024: Ham-Kam 1-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 56%, Ham-Kam 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for ODD Ballklubb and 70% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 70% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 70% of Ham-Kam's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Ham-Kam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 78% of Ham-Kam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Ham-Kam 2-0 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.98 xG and Ham-Kam 1.27 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ham-Kam landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.87 / defence 0.93 against Ham-Kam attack 1.00 / defence 1.24, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 54% | Draw 22% | Ham-Kam 24%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 53%, Ham-Kam 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.38 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.