ODD Ballklubb 3-2 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ODD Ballklubb host Aalesund at Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have gone 4W 1D 4L from 9 outings — a 1.44 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 2W 1D 2L at Skagerak Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Aalesund — All Games: 0W 3D 6L from 9 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 3.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.22 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, ODD Ballklubb have the edge — a 1.11 PPG advantage (1.44 vs 0.33) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Aalesund in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 78%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 33% and Aalesund 89% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ODD Ballklubb 56% | Aalesund 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.63 xG and Aalesund 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.849 / defence 1.122 | Aalesund attack 0.770 / defence 1.655. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.454. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.655 — this is suppressing ODD Ballklubb's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 ODD Ballklubb games / 9 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 46% | Draw 24% | Aalesund 29%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Aalesund 3.45. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 40% | Aalesund 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 46% | Draw 24% | Aalesund 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.63 / Aalesund 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.849 / def 1.122 | Aalesund attack 0.770 / def 1.655 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Aalesund xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 25 July 2020 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
ODD Ballklubb 3 - 2 Aalesund.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 46% chance of winning, Aalesund a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-1D-4L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.22 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Aalesund (all comps): 0W-3D-6L in 9 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 3.22 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (0.85) and Aalesund's defence rating (1.66), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aalesund's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
46%
2.17
24%
4.11
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.89
1.26
Aalesund xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
6%
17.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.26 for Aalesund, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 9 games, going 4W 1D 4L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Aalesund sit at 0.33 PPG from 9 outings (0W 3D 6L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Aalesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Aalesund have taken 0.50 points per game from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.22 scored and 3.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund in 89%.
Last 9 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 games (1.44 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 0W 3D 6L in their last 9 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Aalesund away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.75 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.50 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Aalesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Aalesund in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 December 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
ODD Ballklubb go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2020, when ODD Ballklubb won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Aalesund specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
1
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund?
From 6 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Aalesund have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2023, when ODD Ballklubb 4-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ODD Ballklubb see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 25%, Aalesund 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (ODD Ballklubb) and 50% (Aalesund).
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 75% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of ODD Ballklubb's recent games and 50% of Aalesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ODD Ballklubb edge out Aalesund 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Aalesund 3-2 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.63 xG and Aalesund 1.26 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against Aalesund attack 0.77 / defence 1.66, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 46% | Draw 24% | Aalesund 29%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 56%, Aalesund 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Aalesund's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.