Mjondalen vs Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjondalen vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjondalen host Viking at Consto Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mjondalen — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjondalen have posted 5W 0D 5L at Consto Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Viking stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Viking have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Mjondalen) versus 1.50 (Viking). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mjondalen, 1 for Viking and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2020, ended 1–2 with Viking winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Viking in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 40% versus Viking 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 43% | Viking 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.69 xG and Viking 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.917 / defence 0.934 | Viking attack 0.999 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.797 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Mjondalen games / 30 Viking games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 46% | Draw 26% | Viking 27%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Viking 3.70. Mjondalen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjondalen are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjondalen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Mjondalen 30% | Viking 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 46% | Draw 26% | Viking 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Mjondalen 1.69 / Viking 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.917 / def 0.934 | Viking attack 0.999 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.797 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Viking xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Viking kick off?
Mjondalen vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 25 April 2021 at Consto Arena.
Where is Mjondalen vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Viking part of?
Mjondalen vs Viking is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 46% chance of winning, Viking a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Mjondalen and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Viking?
Record (2 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 1 | Viking 1W.
What form are Mjondalen and Viking in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Viking (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mjondalen's attack rating (0.92) and Viking's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.80
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.95
1.26
Viking xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
5%
19.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.26 for Viking, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjondalen's recent record stands at 9W 2D 19L from 30 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 10L across 30 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjondalen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjondalen have managed 6W 0D 9L from 15 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 5W 4D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjondalen are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.80 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Viking in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 9W 2D 19L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while Viking have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.20 PPG; Viking away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Viking go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Mjondalen's record when hosting Viking specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
1
Draws
3
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Viking?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Viking have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when Mjondalen 0-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 33%, Viking 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Mjondalen and 73% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mjondalen have failed to score in 33% of games; Viking in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Viking?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 53% of Viking's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Mjondalen's matches and 73% of Viking's.
Do Mjondalen and Viking tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Viking in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mjondalen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 5, as Mjondalen and Viking drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.69 xG and Viking 1.26 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Viking landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.92 / defence 0.93 against Viking attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 46% | Draw 26% | Viking 27%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 43%, Viking 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Viking's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.