Mjondalen 1-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 46%, yet in-form Sarpsborg 08 FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 28 as Mjondalen welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Consto Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mjondalen — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Consto Arena, Mjondalen have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sarpsborg 08 FF — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mjondalen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Mjondalen have won 1, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 53% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 49% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.72 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.888 / defence 0.977 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.022 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.224. Data: 57 Mjondalen games / 57 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 46% | Draw 29% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 24%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 4.17. Mjondalen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjondalen are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sarpsborg 08 FF (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjondalen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 70% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 46% | Draw 29% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Mjondalen 1.72 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.888 / def 0.977 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.022 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Mjondalen 1 - 3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 46% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (3 meetings): Mjondalen 1W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W.
What form are Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mjondalen's attack at 0.89x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.42
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.95
1.22
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
4%
22.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.22 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mjondalen's recent record stands at 13W 12D 32L from 57 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 25L across 57 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjondalen on 0.89 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mjondalen have managed 8W 5D 15L from 28 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 6W 6D 16L across 28 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Mjondalen are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.19 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 13W 12D 32L in their last 57 games (0.89 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 18W 14D 25L in their last 57 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Mjondalen's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.04 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mjondalen's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mjondalen
1
Draws
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 1, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 28 November 2021, when Mjondalen 1-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 50%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mjondalen) and 54% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 57% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mjondalen's recent games and 54% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Mjondalen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Mjondalen 1-3 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.72 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.22 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 46% | Draw 29% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 24%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Sarpsborg 08 FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 49%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjondalen 0.89 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjondalen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.