Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
ODD Ballklubb make the trip to Consto Arena to face Mjondalen in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Monday 24 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Mjondalen (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Mjondalen's home record at Consto Arena: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
ODD Ballklubb have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Mjondalen's favour (1.30 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mjondalen lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2020, ended 1–6 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Mjondalen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 40% versus ODD Ballklubb 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 43% | ODD Ballklubb 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.74 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.949 / defence 0.944 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.085 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.381. Data: 31 Mjondalen games / 32 ODD Ballklubb games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 44% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 30%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | ODD Ballklubb 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjondalen are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjondalen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mjondalen 30% | ODD Ballklubb 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 44% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Mjondalen 1.74 / ODD Ballklubb 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.949 / def 0.944 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.085 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.42
ODD Ballklubb xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 24 May 2021 at Consto Arena.
Where is Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 44% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (2 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 2W.
What form are Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mjondalen's attack rating (0.95) and ODD Ballklubb's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (1.08x) against Mjondalen's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
The sample (31/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.75
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
3.15
1.42
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
5%
19.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.42 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Mjondalen have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 9W 2D 19L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 13W 4D 13L from 30 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, ODD Ballklubb are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mjondalen have posted 1.20 PPG from 15 outings (6W 0D 9L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 5W 2D 8L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjondalen are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.73 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 9W 2D 19L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 4D 13L in their last 30 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Mjondalen's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.20 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won 6-1 on 30 Aug 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjondalen have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
1
Draws
3
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, ODD Ballklubb have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2021, when ODD Ballklubb 2-2 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 33%, ODD Ballklubb 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Mjondalen) and 53% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mjondalen have failed to score in 33% of games; ODD Ballklubb in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 47% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Mjondalen's recent games and 53% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mjondalen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb finished level at 0-0 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.74 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.42 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 1.7 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.95 / defence 0.94 against ODD Ballklubb attack 1.08 / defence 1.10, drawn from 31/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 44% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 30%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 43%, ODD Ballklubb 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.