Mjondalen 2-0 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjondalen vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Brann travel to Consto Arena to take on Mjondalen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjondalen have posted 2W 0D 7L at Consto Arena — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mjondalen 0.60 PPG, Brann 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Mjondalen, 0 for Brann and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2020, ended 1–0 with Mjondalen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Brann in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 45% versus Brann 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 45% | Brann 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.00 xG and Brann 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.568 / defence 1.229 | Brann attack 0.787 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.404. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.568 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Brann bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Mjondalen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Mjondalen games / 20 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 27% | Draw 28% | Brann 45%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Brann 2.22. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Mjondalen 33% | Brann 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 27% | Draw 28% | Brann 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Mjondalen 1.00 / Brann 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.568 / def 1.229 | Brann attack 0.787 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Brann (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Brann xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Brann kick off?
Mjondalen vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 17 October 2020 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Brann?
Mjondalen 2 - 0 Brann.
Where is Mjondalen vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Brann part of?
Mjondalen vs Brann is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 27% chance of winning, Brann a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Mjondalen and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Brann?
Record (1 meetings): Mjondalen 1W | Draws 0 | Brann 0W.
What form are Mjondalen and Brann in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Brann (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjondalen's attacking strength (0.57x league average) is weighed against Brann's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
27%
3.64
28%
3.63
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.36
1.36
Brann xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
7%
14.18
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.36 for Brann, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Mjondalen have picked up 0.70 PPG on a 4W 2D 14L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 6W 5D 9L from 20 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mjondalen have posted 0.67 PPG from 9 outings (2W 0D 7L).
On the road, Brann have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjondalen are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.25 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 70%.
Last 20 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Brann in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 4W 2D 14L in their last 20 games (0.70 PPG), while Brann have gone 6W 5D 9L in their last 20 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 0.67 PPG; Brann away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Mjondalen's record when hosting Brann specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Mjondalen
2
Draws
0
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Brann?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 2, Brann have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2021, when Mjondalen 1-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Brann?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 33%, Brann 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Mjondalen) and 56% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Brann?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 56% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Mjondalen's recent games and 56% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and Brann tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Brann in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjondalen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Brann.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen beat Brann 2-0 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.00 xG and Brann 1.36 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mjondalen beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brann landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.57 / defence 1.23 against Brann attack 0.79 / defence 1.21, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 27% | Draw 28% | Brann 45%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Mjondalen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 45%, Brann 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Brann's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Mjondalen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mjondalen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.