Lillestrom 2-0 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 30 as Lillestrom welcome Sandefjord to Åråsen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Lillestrom have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lillestrom's home record at Åråsen Stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sandefjord — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sandefjord have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lillestrom at 1.20 PPG versus Sandefjord's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Lillestrom, 0 for Sandefjord and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lillestrom trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sandefjord trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 66% and Sandefjord 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 62% | Sandefjord 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.75 xG and Sandefjord 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.899 / defence 0.902 | Sandefjord attack 0.929 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.261. Data: 29 Lillestrom games / 59 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 51% | Draw 29% | Sandefjord 20%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Sandefjord 5.00. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lillestrom are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 50% | Sandefjord 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 51% | Draw 29% | Sandefjord 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Lillestrom 1.75 / Sandefjord 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.899 / def 0.902 | Sandefjord attack 0.929 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Sandefjord xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Sandefjord kick off?
Lillestrom vs Sandefjord kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Lillestrom 2 - 0 Sandefjord.
Where is Lillestrom vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Sandefjord part of?
Lillestrom vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 51% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lillestrom and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Sandefjord?
Record (1 meetings): Lillestrom 0W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Lillestrom and Sandefjord in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
51%
1.97
29%
3.44
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.80
1.06
Sandefjord xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
4%
28.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.2 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.06 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lillestrom come into this having played 29 games, going 13W 7D 9L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.24 PPG from 29 outings (10W 6D 13L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lillestrom on 1.59 PPG, Sandefjord on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lillestrom's home form reads 7W 3D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.93 points per game from 14 outings (4W 1D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lillestrom are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.31 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 13W 7D 9L in their last 29 games (1.59 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 10W 6D 13L in their last 29 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Sandefjord away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.71 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Lillestrom won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lillestrom's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Lillestrom
1
Draws
2
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Sandefjord?
From 9 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 6, Sandefjord have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Lillestrom 3-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Sandefjord?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lillestrom see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 50%, Sandefjord 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Lillestrom and 71% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Sandefjord in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Lillestrom's games and 64% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lillestrom's matches and 71% of Sandefjord's.
Do Lillestrom and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lillestrom cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Sandefjord 2-0 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.75 xG and Sandefjord 1.06 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sandefjord landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.90 / defence 0.90 against Sandefjord attack 0.93 / defence 1.13, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 51% | Draw 29% | Sandefjord 20%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 62%, Sandefjord 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Sandefjord's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.59 PPG, Sandefjord 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lillestrom win broke the near-deadlock. Lillestrom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.