Lillestrom 3-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 9 as Lillestrom welcome Sandefjord to Åråsen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Lillestrom have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lillestrom haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lillestrom's home record at Åråsen: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Lillestrom are significantly better at Åråsen than their overall form suggests.
Sandefjord — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sandefjord have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sandefjord — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lillestrom register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sandefjord in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Lillestrom: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 2 for Sandefjord, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 0–3 with Sandefjord winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lillestrom and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Lillestrom trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sandefjord trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 53% versus Sandefjord 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lillestrom 70% | Sandefjord 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.67 xG and Sandefjord 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 1.046 / defence 1.071 | Sandefjord attack 1.053 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.123. Data: 8 Lillestrom games / 38 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 47% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 29%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Sandefjord 3.45. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Lillestrom dominate the H2H record, yet Sandefjord are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Lillestrom are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sandefjord (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 60% | Sandefjord 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Åråsen • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 47% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Lillestrom 1.67 / Sandefjord 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 1.046 / def 1.071 | Sandefjord attack 1.053 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Sandefjord xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Sandefjord kick off?
Lillestrom vs Sandefjord kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Åråsen.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Lillestrom 3 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Lillestrom vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Sandefjord part of?
Lillestrom vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 47% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lillestrom and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Sandefjord?
Record (8 meetings): Lillestrom 5W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 2W.
What form are Lillestrom and Sandefjord in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lillestrom's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.16
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.94
1.27
Sandefjord xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
5%
18.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.27 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lillestrom come into this having played 30 games, going 7W 3D 20L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. Lillestrom haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (15W 3D 12L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Sandefjord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lillestrom's home form reads 3W 3D 9L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.93 points per game from 15 outings (4W 2D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Lillestrom are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.83 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 7W 3D 20L in their last 30 games (0.80 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 15W 3D 12L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Sandefjord away?
Sandefjord's away record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 0.80 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Lillestrom or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lillestrom have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Lillestrom won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lillestrom's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Lillestrom
1
Draws
2
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Sandefjord?
From 9 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 6, Sandefjord have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Lillestrom 3-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Sandefjord?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Sandefjord see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lillestrom at 53%, Sandefjord at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Lillestrom and 73% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Lillestrom's games and 80% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lillestrom's matches and 73% of Sandefjord's.
Do Lillestrom and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lillestrom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Sandefjord 3-1 at Åråsen, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.67 xG and Sandefjord 1.27 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lillestrom beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 1.05 / defence 1.07 against Sandefjord attack 1.05 / defence 0.96, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 47% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 29%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 70%, Sandefjord 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sandefjord arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Lillestrom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.