Lillestrom 5-1 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lillestrom at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Aalesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aalesund make the trip to Åråsen Stadion to face Lillestrom in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Wednesday 19 July 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lillestrom's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrom have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Aalesund (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Aalesund have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Lillestrom's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Aalesund's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lillestrom, 1 for Aalesund and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Aalesund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Aalesund half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 58% versus Aalesund 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 60% | Aalesund 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 2.31 xG and Aalesund 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 1.130 / defence 1.140 | Aalesund attack 0.721 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.255. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Lillestrom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Lillestrom games / 44 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 66% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 16%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Aalesund 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Lillestrom (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lillestrom 70% | Aalesund 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Jul 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 66% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 58% | xG Lillestrom 2.31 / Aalesund 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 1.130 / def 1.140 | Aalesund attack 0.721 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Aalesund xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Aalesund kick off?
Lillestrom vs Aalesund kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 19 July 2023 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Aalesund?
Lillestrom 5 - 1 Aalesund.
Where is Lillestrom vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Aalesund part of?
Lillestrom vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 66% chance of winning, Aalesund a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lillestrom and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Aalesund?
Record (2 meetings): Lillestrom 1W | Draws 0 | Aalesund 1W.
What form are Lillestrom and Aalesund in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Aalesund (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lillestrom's attack at 1.13x the league average against Aalesund's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.72x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
66%
1.52
19%
5.38
16%
6.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
3.34
1.03
Aalesund xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.38
19%
Draw
6.44
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
10%
10.02
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
2%
64.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.03 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lillestrom come into this having played 43 games, going 23W 7D 13L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Aalesund sit at 1.00 PPG from 43 outings (11W 10D 22L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Aalesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lillestrom's home form reads 12W 2D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Aalesund have taken 0.76 points per game from 21 outings (4W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lillestrom are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 0.93 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 23W 7D 13L in their last 43 games (1.77 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 11W 10D 22L in their last 43 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Aalesund away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.81 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won 5-1 on 19 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Lillestrom
1
Draws
1
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Aalesund?
From 5 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 3, Aalesund have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Aalesund 1-3 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Aalesund?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lillestrom see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 57%, Aalesund 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lillestrom) and 67% (Aalesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 43% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lillestrom vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Lillestrom's matches and 67% of Aalesund's.
Do Lillestrom and Aalesund tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lillestrom run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Aalesund 5-1 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 2.31 xG and Aalesund 1.03 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Lillestrom beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 1.13 / defence 1.14 against Aalesund attack 0.72 / defence 1.24, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 66% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 16%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 60%, Aalesund 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Aalesund's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Aalesund (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.