Kristiansund BK 1-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Viking (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kristiansund BK face Viking.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kristiansund BK host Viking at Kristiansund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Kristiansund Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Viking have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Viking are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Viking have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the last 9 encounters against Kristiansund BK's 1 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Viking winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Viking have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Viking in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 58% and Viking 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 54% | Viking 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.11 xG and Viking 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.876 / defence 1.047 | Viking attack 1.162 / defence 0.728. League average goals — home 1.748 / away 1.195. Viking's defence strength of 0.728 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Kristiansund BK games / 39 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 29% | Draw 26% | Viking 45%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Viking 2.22. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 70% | Viking 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 29% | Draw 26% | Viking 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.11 / Viking 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.876 / def 1.047 | Viking attack 1.162 / def 0.728 | league avg home 1.748 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Viking (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Viking xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Viking kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Kristiansund BK 1 - 2 Viking.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Viking part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Viking is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 29% chance of winning, Viking a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Viking?
Record (9 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 0 | Viking 8W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Viking in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Viking (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 0.88x the league average against Viking's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
29%
3.45
26%
3.83
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.57
1.46
Viking xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
7%
14.78
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.46 for Viking, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kristiansund BK come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 17D 25L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Viking sit at 2.12 PPG from 59 outings (37W 14D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kristiansund BK's home form reads 10W 10D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.87 points per game from 30 outings (16W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.32 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 69%.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Viking in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 17W 17D 25L in their last 59 games (1.15 PPG), while Viking have gone 37W 14D 8L in their last 59 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.33 PPG; Viking away: 1.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Viking go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Viking specifically: 1W 0D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kristiansund BK
0
Draws
9
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 1, Viking have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Kristiansund BK 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kristiansund BK at 60%, Viking at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Kristiansund BK and 70% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Kristiansund BK's games and 73% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 70% of Viking's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Viking tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Viking in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Kristiansund BK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Kristiansund BK 1-2 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.11 xG and Viking 1.46 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.88 / defence 1.05 against Viking attack 1.16 / defence 0.73, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 29% | Draw 26% | Viking 45%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 54%, Viking 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.