Kristiansund BK 0-4 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rosenborg (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kristiansund BK face Rosenborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kristiansund BK host Rosenborg at Nordmøre stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Nordmøre stadion, Kristiansund BK have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rosenborg — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Rosenborg's 2.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Kristiansund BK's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kristiansund BK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rosenborg in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Kristiansund BK, 3 for Rosenborg and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 52% versus Rosenborg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 45% | Rosenborg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.02 xG and Rosenborg 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.718 / defence 1.071 | Rosenborg attack 1.182 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.256. Kristiansund BK's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Kristiansund BK games / 59 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 24% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 51%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Rosenborg 1.96. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 60% | Rosenborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Nordmøre stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 24% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.02 / Rosenborg 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.718 / def 1.071 | Rosenborg attack 1.182 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Rosenborg xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Nordmøre stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Kristiansund BK 0 - 4 Rosenborg.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Nordmøre stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 24% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg?
Record (6 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 2 | Rosenborg 3W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kristiansund BK's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
24%
4.10
25%
3.99
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.61
1.59
Rosenborg xG
4.10
24%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
5%
20.14
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.59 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kristiansund BK's recent record stands at 9W 10D 12L from 31 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 16W 5D 10L across 31 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kristiansund BK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kristiansund BK have managed 5W 6D 4L from 15 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 6W 3D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.74 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 65%.
Last 31 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 9W 10D 12L in their last 31 games (1.19 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 16W 5D 10L in their last 31 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Rosenborg away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.40 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2024, when Rosenborg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kristiansund BK
3
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 2, Rosenborg have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Rosenborg 3-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 60%, Rosenborg 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Kristiansund BK and 67% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Kristiansund BK's games and 67% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 67% of Rosenborg's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Kristiansund BK 0-4 at Nordmøre stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.02 xG and Rosenborg 1.59 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Rosenborg outscored their 1.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.72 / defence 1.07 against Rosenborg attack 1.18 / defence 0.95, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 24% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 51%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 45%, Rosenborg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rosenborg's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.