jerv 1-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this jerv vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
jerv host Haugesund at J.J. Ugland Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 July 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
jerv — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for jerv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
jerv at J.J. Ugland Stadion this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 home games — 1.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Haugesund are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
jerv trading profile (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Haugesund trading profile (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — jerv 36% versus Haugesund 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (jerv 54% | Haugesund 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects jerv 1.05 xG and Haugesund 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: jerv attack 0.600 / defence 1.222 | Haugesund attack 1.141 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.435. jerv's attack strength of 0.600 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 jerv games / 42 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: jerv 19% | Draw 21% | Haugesund 59%. Fair-value odds: jerv 5.26 | Draw 4.76 | Haugesund 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Haugesund (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haugesund at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: jerv 33% | Haugesund 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: jerv vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: J.J. Ugland Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: jerv 19% | Draw 21% | Haugesund 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG jerv 1.05 / Haugesund 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: jerv attack 0.600 / def 1.222 | Haugesund attack 1.141 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
jerv xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Haugesund xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does jerv vs Haugesund kick off?
jerv vs Haugesund kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 July 2022 at J.J. Ugland Stadion.
What was the final score in jerv vs Haugesund?
jerv 1 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is jerv vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at J.J. Ugland Stadion.
What competition is jerv vs Haugesund part of?
jerv vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win jerv vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives jerv a 19% chance of winning, Haugesund a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in jerv vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both jerv and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will jerv vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between jerv and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are jerv and Haugesund in?
jerv (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Haugesund (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
jerv's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus jerv's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
19%
5.17
21%
4.70
59%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
jerv xG
Total xG
3.05
2.00
Haugesund xG
5.17
19%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
1.68
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
14%
7.40
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
3%
38.22
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for jerv vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are jerv and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for jerv and 2.00 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for jerv vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
jerv's recent record stands at 2W 2D 7L from 11 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for jerv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 5L across 11 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: jerv on 0.73 PPG, Haugesund on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, jerv have managed 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — jerv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Haugesund's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
jerv are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.73 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haugesund in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
jerv
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are jerv and Haugesund in coming into this match?
jerv have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — jerv at home or Haugesund away?
jerv's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — jerv at home: 1.17 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between jerv and Haugesund runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
jerv
0
Draws
1
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between jerv and Haugesund?
From 2 meetings on record, jerv have won 1, Haugesund have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did jerv and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2022, when Haugesund 3-1 jerv.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
jerv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — jerv 33%, Haugesund 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (jerv) and 67% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: jerv keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; jerv have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = jerv home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when jerv play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of jerv's recent matches and 67% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is jerv vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of jerv's recent games and 67% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do jerv and Haugesund tend to score early?
jerv have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as jerv defy the odds to beat Haugesund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
jerv beat Haugesund 1-0 at J.J. Ugland Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting jerv 1.05 xG and Haugesund 2.00 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Haugesund landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of jerv attack 0.60 / defence 1.22 against Haugesund attack 1.14 / defence 1.12, drawn from 10/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it jerv 19% | Draw 21% | Haugesund 59%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a jerv win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (jerv 54%, Haugesund 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
jerv's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — jerv 0.73 PPG, Haugesund 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the jerv win broke the near-deadlock. jerv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.