Haugesund vs Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Haugesund Stadion plays host to Haugesund versus Valerenga in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Haugesund at Haugesund Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Valerenga (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Valerenga have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Haugesund, 2.00 for Valerenga — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Haugesund have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Valerenga in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Haugesund lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2020, ended 2–1 with Haugesund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Haugesund half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Valerenga half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 57% and Valerenga 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 60% | Valerenga 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.30 xG and Valerenga 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.988 / defence 1.053 | Valerenga attack 1.162 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.381. Valerenga's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 31 Haugesund games / 33 Valerenga games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 28% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 45%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Valerenga 2.22. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valerenga at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valerenga if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 60% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 28% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Haugesund 1.30 / Valerenga 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.988 / def 1.053 | Valerenga attack 1.162 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Valerenga xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Valerenga kick off?
Haugesund vs Valerenga kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 24 May 2021 at Haugesund Stadion.
Where is Haugesund vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Valerenga part of?
Haugesund vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 28% chance of winning, Valerenga a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Haugesund and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Valerenga?
Record (2 meetings): Haugesund 1W | Draws 0 | Valerenga 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Valerenga in?
Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Valerenga (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Valerenga's attack (1.16x) against Haugesund's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
The sample (31/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
28%
3.59
27%
3.65
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.00
1.69
Valerenga xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
5%
19.47
12%
8.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.69 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Haugesund's recent record stands at 11W 6D 13L from 30 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 5L across 30 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valerenga by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haugesund heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Haugesund have managed 6W 3D 6L from 15 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 5W 5D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Haugesund are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.70 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 15W 10D 5L in their last 30 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Valerenga away?
Haugesund's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.40 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Valerenga in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Valerenga go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 3-0 on 20 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valerenga — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Haugesund
3
Draws
5
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 2, Valerenga have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 53%, Valerenga 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Haugesund) and 47% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Valerenga in 33%; Haugesund have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Haugesund's games and 60% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Haugesund's recent games and 47% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Valerenga tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund and Valerenga finished level at 0-0 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.30 xG and Valerenga 1.69 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Valerenga landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.99 / defence 1.05 against Valerenga attack 1.16 / defence 0.79, drawn from 31/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 28% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 45%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 60%, Valerenga 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.