Haugesund 1-3 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Haugesund face Rosenborg.

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Analysis & Preview

Rosenborg travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund in Eliteserien (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Haugesund stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Haugesund's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Rosenborg have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Rosenborg have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Haugesund) versus 1.10 (Rosenborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Haugesund have won 1, Rosenborg 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Aug 2023, ended Haugesund 1–2 Rosenborg — a Rosenborg win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Haugesund in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Rosenborg in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 57% and Rosenborg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 55% | Rosenborg 73%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Haugesund surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Rosenborg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.23 xG and Rosenborg 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.933 / defence 1.049 | Rosenborg attack 0.939 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.397. Data: built from Haugesund's last 33 games and Rosenborg's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Haugesund 33% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 40%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.99 | Draw 3.81 | Rosenborg 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Haugesund's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Haugesund 50% (last 10 home games) | Rosenborg 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Haugesund 33 games, Rosenborg 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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