Haugesund vs Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haugesund at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Mjondalen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mjondalen make the trip to Haugesund Stadion to face Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Haugesund (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund at Haugesund Stadion this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Mjondalen's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Haugesund's favour (1.30 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Haugesund 0W, Mjondalen 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2021, ended 0–3 with Mjondalen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Mjondalen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 55% versus Mjondalen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 63% | Mjondalen 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.73 xG and Mjondalen 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.996 / defence 0.931 | Mjondalen attack 0.788 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.834 / away 1.314. Data: 49 Haugesund games / 49 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 53% | Draw 29% | Mjondalen 18%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Mjondalen 5.56. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Mjondalen lead the H2H ledger, but Haugesund carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haugesund if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 40% | Mjondalen 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 53% | Draw 29% | Mjondalen 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Haugesund 1.73 / Mjondalen 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.996 / def 0.931 | Mjondalen attack 0.788 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.834 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Mjondalen xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Mjondalen kick off?
Haugesund vs Mjondalen kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Haugesund Stadion.
Where is Haugesund vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Mjondalen part of?
Haugesund vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 53% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Haugesund and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Mjondalen?
Record (3 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 1 | Mjondalen 2W.
What form are Haugesund and Mjondalen in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (1.00) and Mjondalen's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mjondalen's attack (0.79x) against Haugesund's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
53%
1.89
29%
3.47
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.70
0.96
Mjondalen xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
3%
30.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Haugesund and 0.96 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Haugesund come into this having played 49 games, going 19W 10D 20L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjondalen sit at 0.88 PPG from 49 outings (11W 10D 28L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Haugesund's home form reads 13W 4D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mjondalen have taken 0.65 points per game from 23 outings (3W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Haugesund are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.02 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 19W 10D 20L in their last 49 games (1.37 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 11W 10D 28L in their last 49 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Mjondalen away?
Haugesund's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.87 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 7-0 on 17 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Haugesund
1
Draws
2
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 1, Mjondalen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2021, when Haugesund 7-0 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Mjondalen?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 48%, Mjondalen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Haugesund) and 44% (Mjondalen).
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Haugesund have failed to score in 26% of games; Mjondalen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Mjondalen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Haugesund's recent matches and 56% of Mjondalen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Haugesund's recent games and 44% of Mjondalen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund and Mjondalen finished level at 0-0 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.73 xG and Mjondalen 0.96 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Mjondalen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.00 / defence 0.93 against Mjondalen attack 0.79 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 53% | Draw 29% | Mjondalen 18%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 63%, Mjondalen 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjondalen's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Haugesund arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.