Haugesund 0-3 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Lillestrom travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 August 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's home record at Haugesund Sparebank Arena: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Sparebank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Lillestrom have posted 2W 3D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.29 PPG. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.29 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haugesund 1.70 PPG, Lillestrom 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Haugesund, 1 for Lillestrom and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2021, ended 1–2 with Lillestrom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lillestrom in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 47% versus Lillestrom 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 60% | Lillestrom 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 2.08 xG and Lillestrom 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.122 / defence 0.789 | Lillestrom attack 1.015 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.825 / away 1.234. Haugesund's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Haugesund games / 15 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 60% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 15%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Lillestrom 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Haugesund (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 50% | Lillestrom 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 60% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Haugesund 2.08 / Lillestrom 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.122 / def 0.789 | Lillestrom attack 1.015 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.825 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Lillestrom xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Lillestrom kick off?
Haugesund vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Lillestrom?
Haugesund 0 - 3 Lillestrom.
Where is Haugesund vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Lillestrom part of?
Haugesund vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 60% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Haugesund and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Lillestrom?
Record (1 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Lillestrom in?
Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 1.12x the league average against Lillestrom's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
60%
1.66
25%
4.02
15%
6.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.07
0.99
Lillestrom xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
6.73
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
12%
8.01
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
2%
53.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Haugesund and 0.99 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 6W 4D 5L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom's form line: 7W 4D 4L from 15 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.47 PPG, Lillestrom on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 2.71 PPG from 7 outings (6W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom in 67%.
Defensively: Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 6W 4D 5L in their last 15 games (1.47 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 7W 4D 4L in their last 15 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Lillestrom away?
Haugesund's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 2.71 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Lillestrom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Lillestrom in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Lillestrom runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Lillestrom won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Haugesund
0
Draws
6
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Lillestrom?
From 8 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 2, Lillestrom have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when Lillestrom 0-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Lillestrom see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 43%, Lillestrom 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Haugesund and 57% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Haugesund's games and 86% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Haugesund's matches and 57% of Lillestrom's.
Dominant Lillestrom run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Haugesund 0-3 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 2.08 xG and Lillestrom 0.99 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Haugesund fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Lillestrom outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.12 / defence 0.79 against Lillestrom attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 60% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 15%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Lillestrom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 60%, Lillestrom 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lillestrom's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.47 PPG, Lillestrom 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lillestrom win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.