Haugesund 0-0 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Fredrikstad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haugesund host Fredrikstad at Haugesund Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 4). Kick-off is Sunday 27 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Haugesund stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Haugesund at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fredrikstad — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fredrikstad's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fredrikstad — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Haugesund, 1 for Fredrikstad and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Haugesund 1–0 Fredrikstad — a Haugesund win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Fredrikstad trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 40% versus Fredrikstad 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 43% | Fredrikstad 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.20 xG and Fredrikstad 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.775 / defence 1.344 | Fredrikstad attack 0.861 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.329. Haugesund's attack rating of 0.775 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Haugesund's defence rating of 1.344 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fredrikstad's projected output up. Data: built from Haugesund's last 33 games and Fredrikstad's last 34.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 30% | Draw 25% | Fredrikstad 45%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.37 | Draw 3.97 | Fredrikstad 2.22. Fredrikstad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fredrikstad as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Haugesund 20% (last 10 home games) | Fredrikstad 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 4 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 30% | Draw 25% | Fredrikstad 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Haugesund 1.20 / Fredrikstad 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.775 / def 1.344 | Fredrikstad attack 0.861 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Fredrikstad xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Haugesund vs Fredrikstad FAQs
What time does Haugesund vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Haugesund vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Fredrikstad?
Haugesund 0 - 0 Fredrikstad.
Where is Haugesund vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Fredrikstad part of?
Haugesund vs Fredrikstad is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 4) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 30% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Haugesund and Fredrikstad will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Haugesund vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Fredrikstad's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Fredrikstad's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Haugesund's last 33 games and Fredrikstad's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
30%
3.37
25%
3.97
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.74
1.54
Fredrikstad xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
6%
15.68
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Haugesund vs Fredrikstad Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.54 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haugesund come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 7D 14L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Fredrikstad sit at 1.70 PPG from 30 outings (14W 9D 7L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Fredrikstad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Haugesund's home form reads 7W 1D 7L across their last 15 home games, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Fredrikstad have taken 1.60 points per game from their last 15 away games (7W 3D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.30 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Fredrikstad
Current Season
Haugesund (Home) vs Fredrikstad (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Haugesund
Current Season
Fredrikstad
Current Season
❓ Haugesund vs Fredrikstad Form FAQs
What form are Haugesund and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 14W 9D 7L in their last 30 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Fredrikstad away?
Fredrikstad's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.47 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 31 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Haugesund's record when hosting Fredrikstad specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Haugesund
2
Draws
1
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Haugesund vs Fredrikstad H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Fredrikstad?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Haugesund have won 1, Fredrikstad have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Fredrikstad last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2025: Fredrikstad 2-2 Haugesund.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Haugesund 27% BTTS, Fredrikstad 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Haugesund) and 40% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Fredrikstad in 40%; Haugesund have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Haugesund vs Fredrikstad Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Haugesund and Fredrikstad matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Haugesund's recent matches and 40% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Haugesund and Fredrikstad matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Haugesund's recent games and 40% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Fredrikstad matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 47% of Haugesund's recent matches and 60% of Fredrikstad's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 4, as Haugesund and Fredrikstad drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.20 xG and Fredrikstad 1.54 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Fredrikstad landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.78 / defence 1.34 against Fredrikstad attack 0.86 / defence 0.94, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 30% | Draw 25% | Fredrikstad 45%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 43%, Fredrikstad 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.